BOZmail – 22nd JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JUNE 22nd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.7673 points (-1.2327 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.778 points (+4.876 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.1743 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 4/10 = 40%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

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LESS IS MORE: 

5-00 WINDSOR

…But take what you can get. A profit is all we are after at the moment……

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on REVOLVER 

Laid @ 1.33 : Hedged 0.42pt @ 1.6

0.02pt BACK on ROMAN EMPRESS

Backed @ 28.0 : Hedged 0.04pt @ 14.0  = P/L on the race : + 0.1048points 

That was mine on Sunday. We’ll all have very different scores no doubt. Both my plays were secured before the off and the lay sorted late Saturday night when 1.6 became available. I was still open to playing again and taking some 2.0 if it appeared on Sunday but it never got near. Market and stable had it as inevitable.

To us not in the know, there was a moment when Romans Empress looked a maybe to stay on which he did of course and well done those that backed the straight forecast. The winner however was never in much doubt. Hence the reason it was a trade. If you left your hedge on Romans until the race, you did better than me. I took my 14.0 last night (a price that may have appeared then because of the weight of our interest I fancy. A problem that. Don’t see much we can do about that if it affected your trade adversely) and decided against an in running play although there was a fraction of a moment when it looked like I might have to deal with the regret of hedging at all and the market responded by posting him at 8.0 in running. I’d made my mind up that wasn’t likely to happen but it did and such is trading. The only score that matters as ever is the one you achieved and I hope the majority who tried it were successful. It is I think going to be the way of things for a week or so and maybe longer if the Limerick Jump card on Monday is anything to go by. It will be a while perhaps before LIM qualifying races occur in UK jumps racing after the resumption.

And so to those of you writing and asking me specifically for guidance on making your long term betting profitable, take note of these next few weeks. We’ve been in downturn territory now since March 17th and whilst it hasn’t been extreme because of my natural caution (and abstinence in this instance. More unusual that), it has been going on for longer now than any period of time that I can recall in the past five years.

Over three months. And yet we remain on the right side of break even overall. BOZmail Rule number 5 is being adhered to as it always will. 

Taking the trade into LIM was not part of the plan. You’ll have gathered that by now. I have never had to deal with an LIM scenario like this ever before and so am improvising as you’ll have gathered. It makes sense though and after breaking the four day losing run on day one with the trading approach, I will stick with it a while now as my method for repairing the damage I’ve done to the LIM score in the past couple of months. Blasting your way out never works long term. You have to grind it out. At the rate of 0.1pt per day that we achieved on day one, it will take a while. Like I say, those wanting an education in how you win long term, this is very much a part of it. The racing itself is still containing far too much guesswork to be trusted to gambling at the moment. We must therefore become traders awhile. If its new to you and you feel you haven’t mastered it yet, stick around. And tell me where your concerns are at any point and what it is you feel you need to learn. I’ll always answer when I can. Much of trading is personal and best learned experientaly in my opinion. When you’ve practised at it long it becomes second nature and although I still have to switch my traders head on, once I have these days I can stay in the bubble until the job is done. Profit is achieved. It won’t be much very often and you will always have to deal with the better score you could have achieved. Extra 0.08 at least was gettable on Sunday especially those who backed Romans at 44.0. I missed that.

Part of the game. Achieving an optimum trade is very rare. For me it is anyway. I’m content so long as it’s profit. You’ll do well to start with by being same. Unless you have a real flair for it that is. Some have. Some use Bet Angel. Both are fine but I possess neither!! I do it the BOZ way!

And on to Monday’s. Fairly similar to Sundays except I’ve found no back to trust in this. The lay is odds on chance Breakfast Club who like Revolver will probably win but is still green and ran very much so FTO. Not as good a price for us as Sundays and more risk so I am staking conservatively again and recommending it purely as a play on the price. Lay at the lowest you can get and hedge as soon as preferential odds are offered. Preferably before the off as if he runs true as Revolver did today, the market might not waver in play as it didn’t on Sunday.

This is even more a case of take whatever you can get profitwise. Likely to be smaller profit than Sunday and don’t be afraid of break even if that looks as good as you can get.

I did say it would be a grind but get the LIM Part Two back into profit I intend to do.

Inch by inch if necessary!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BREAKFAST CLUB (around 1.9 or lower and take preferential odds as a hedge as and when they are offered.)

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3375) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2327) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 18)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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