BOZmail 22nd JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


WEDNESDAY JULY 22nd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.5473 points (+0.5473 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.1982 points (+6.1982 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.6615 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.9491 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 26/34 = 76.47%  Backs : 2/12 = 16.66%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Monday’s Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on HEAVEY (around 4.5. Much higher than expected so try for much lower if you can.I have restricted stake accordingly. Get the best price you can to be hedged as appropriate when preferential odds are offered)

Trade play: Laid @ 2.7 : Hedged 0.025pt @ 8.0 : P/L = +0.0735pts

Total Trade P/L = +  0.0735pts       (+0.2452pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L =   +0.098pts  (+0.154pts)

2-2 after a narrow victory for the non traders! Only narrow against me though as I was shot hit with my hedge at the first fence. Always worth having that ready in Novice Chases if you are playing in running.Left my lay late as the price did indeed come in on a large tissue but I got to the off without my hedge. Wasn’t terribly anxious because stake was low and price taken likewise so went in running looking for around 4.00 or 4.5 hedge but also with the possibility of switching to a non trader. You know the rest. He horlicksed the first fence (they often do when trying it first time in public) and shot out to 8.0! That was after a concerted bet in the five minutes before the off. Started around 2.4!! Good old jump racing, eh? First time outers in Handicap Chases always worth laying. This one jumped like a parrot!

4-40 BATH

I’d say William Hill have done it again putting Quemonda in at 11/10 and you’ll need to get in early here (as opposed to today’s two which were both wait for the price types) because he’s more like 5/2 in my book. Anything you get around or under that is worth a lay. Quemonda meets Janus on 6lbs worse terms thanks to George Rooke’s claim and there was only a neck between them when they met at Lingfield recently. Janus been out and run well here since (Milton Harris’s horses not yet winning but running ok and of course he loves a winner here) and is much more the turf horse with Quemonda’s only effort on grass being a spectacularly indifferent run. Shorltlist plays this race as well and fancies Derry Boy as cover. It’s on the flat but things have improved there of late and I like this one enough to make it the first of my attempted week of traditional LIMs.

Recommended:

0.25pt LAY on QUEMONDA (around 3.0 maybe but could be much shorter. Get in early and take the best price you can)

0.075pt BACK on JANUS (around 5.5)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Ascot (July 25) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way – Entered for Ascot (July 26)

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Jaganory

TO FOLLOW HORSE ON THE FLAT ON WEDNESDAY:

1-40 BATH – JAGANORY @ 4/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge when appropriate as preferential odds are offered.

Jaganory got back on my list as Chris Mason’s horses continue to run well in general and this old boy ran a stormer to finish 3rd at Chepstow on Friday at 28/1. Turned out again in under a week (my Dad’s favourite system) and looks spectacularly handicapped now and is a serious Bath specialist. Nic Currie been booked again and she has won on him before. Looks laid out to me. There are dangers in the race – notably Adrian Wintle’s horse and the topweight Q Twenty Boy but I’m sweet enough on this to manage my hedging aggressively. I almost always back and hedge in segments now and post my averaged prices on here and will probably save a few segments of the lay for late in running in the hope she has him in contention at the death to enable a below evens hedge. 4/1 starting price looks quite short but if the stable fancy, there will be money so don’t dally too long waiting for a drift. You want to be on this at a fair price. 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 23)

Balagan 

Perle Rose – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 23)

Ashutor – Entered for Newton Abbot (July 24)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 23) & Newton Abbot (July 24)

Lord Condi

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE on TUESDAY:

4-10 PERTH – CHECK MY PULSE @ 11/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge when appropriate as preferential odds are offered.

Backed @ 17.5 : Hedged before the off : 0.15pt @ 10.5 : P/L = +0.049pts

Thought I might have underestimated it two out having slanted my trade to expect a loss but a peck on landing just checked the progress and ran on well again for a place. Rebecca Menzies yard very out of kilter in general but this one showed promise again so she is to be kept an eye on for Cartmel at the weekend. Horse stays on the list for that too and is entered again for Uttoxeter on Thursday. Keep tracking.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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