BOZmail – 22nd JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY JANUARY 22nd 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

3-40 LEICESTER

The trials and tribulations of January continue but soldier on we do, trying to get one right rather than wrong. We fight against a stable that knows its horse better than us at this time of year as we saw yesterday with Briac but we stick to the methods and the principles and we seek the value so that in the long term profit can be assured.

Larry carries a huge penalty for his win LTO and despite the step up in distance, which should help, that penalty opens the door for the Queen’s talented hurdler Forth Bridge who has been knocking on the chase door for ages and going up small in the weights for not winning.Today looks to me like it is the chance. Paul’s Hill is decent cover getting weight if forgiven for LTO after a break and coming back down in distance.

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on LARRY

0.15pt BACK on FORTH BRIDGE

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 36/46 = 78.26% :   BACKS: 7/27 = 25.92%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.8 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

 

RIP Willoughby Court – sad news indeed.

 

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Monday night at Midnight:

 

1st Quarter: SERENA WILLIAMS @ 6/5

2nd Quarter: MADISON KEYS @ 5/1 (6.6 on the exchanges)     

3rd Quarter: MARIA SHARAPOVA @ 3/1  saver: AMANDA ANISIMOVA @ 11/2

4th Quarter: SLOANE STEPHENS @ 5/2   saver: DANIELLE COLLINS @ 10/1

4 x 0.25pt singles with a 0.1pt single on each named saver. 4 x 0.05pt trebles on the four main selections and a 0.05pt four timer for a total spend of 1.45 points.

 

More woe to the above bet with Madison’s defeat but I was playing for value and have been thwarted and the continued presence of Serena and Collins means it ain’t over yet. I am inclined not to play further in the quarter finals until I see how I come out of this. Serena and Collins can both be fancied to win their next but I think we’ve seen now how women’s slam tennis can go either way when it gets to this stage. My overall tournament position retains possibilities with my pre-tournament assessment that Svitolina’s new found confidence from winning the WTA finals may prove a decisive factor – admittedly one I have deviated from in the heat of studying draw and back stats – continues to hold firm. Sometimes you can do too much research and your instincts become fuzzed! I take solace from the fact that the Halep-Williams match just watched was a classic. Betting aside, I just enjoyed watching the supreme quality of the sport. It ever drives me on.

C’mon Danielle!!

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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