BOZmail 22nd FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22nd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.511 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.5541 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Saturday play

3-50 LINGFIELD

I had an email last year in huge capitals saying “if only you were as good at picking backs as you are at picking lays”. Amen to that. With Discretion was a seriously naff choice and you can scratch her off your future chasers to watch list. Nico ain’t taught her nothing! On the flip side, if she had won she would have been a cracking price! I was not expecting 12/1 but then of course that was the clue that Henderson (a player on the exchanges or I’m a Dutchman’s uncle) knew she still couldn’t jump.

Hey ho. They backed the lay which ran nearly as badly so we still came out of the day intact with a good win from the To Follow who looks interesting for the Festival notebook. That’s one that can jump and has what they call an engine on board as NH horses go. The big white face and feet mark him out and you can be sure we are going to see more wins from that fella.

I was napping Elgin in the Kingwell last Saturday before Wincanton was called off and the restage of the event takes place at Kempton Saturday and I was tempted again with the form of the King stable still fruity but I do think this is slightly harder with a couple of extra possibles to outrun and a less layable fav.

So in view of the still fragile bank management position for LIM, I decamp to the all weather for the day to take on HABUB who opened 7/4 on the early William Hill tissue but is on the drift as I write as other bookies prefer Almufti and so do I at the weights. Habub has a whack to give away all round and will have to step up on what shown so far to scrape this. It is Jim Crowley’s only ride of the day but the Burrows stable yet to get going in the UK in 2020 and actually a pretty competitive affair so that coming back down in class (ran in a Listed sprint LTO) and back up at a mile look appetisers as does Crowley’s coming back from Dubai for the ride but even with all that, I think the weight will stop him and his times  also leave him very vulnerable unless he has shown marked improvement on the gallops.

Almufti gets a stone and 3lb which seems ginormous to me on my figures but he is also vulnerable to Goring who has a 5lb pull for just over a length LTO and is a real Lingfield specialist (5 wins here) from the Johnson Houghton stable running at 75% on the fortnightly horses to form table. 13/2 early tissue on him looks the value of the race. Arcanada also well in and additional LIM cover.

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAYon HABUB (around 3.3 but I’d expect shorter to appear on the exchanges)

0.05pt BACK on GORING

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 11/17 = 64.7%  Backs: 2/9 = 22.22%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

19th:   +0.147 (+0.804) Lay @ 1.44 

20th:   -0.34 (+0.464) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 4.4

21st:   +0.047 (+0.511) Lay @ 3.3 : Back @ 10.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11 & 12) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for Wincanton(Feb 26)&the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

1-25 WARWICK – LIEUTENANT ROCCO – 0.2pt BACK WON

(Backed @ 2.75 ) P/L = +0.35

Took the drifting price with a view to trading in play and was tempted to take some more at 3.0 and 3.2 in running (but didn’t) and didn’t trade either as was always impressed with the way he was travelling out in front. Very smart recruit for the Festival and will sit on the subs bench for the  Cheltenham Yankee for the time being along with Sporting John and maybe a couple of others in case we have any defectors from the main four. Well done to those who played the trade on the Cheltenham price which was 56.0 before the race and is now 41.0. Entered again at Wincanton next Wednesday which was probably a caveat in case Warwick was off but ought to be kept an eye on in case the plan is to run up a winner’s sequence. Very impressive sort.

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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