BOZmail 22nd DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

TUESDAY DECEMBER 22nd  2020

The BOZmail will publish on DECEMBER 23rd to update scores and the Xmas entries on the To Follow list before taking a two day holiday coming back in on BOXING DAY morning.

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/178 = 69.66%  Backs : 35/112 = 31.25%

2-25 SEDGEFIELD

Well done those that followed the value highlighted with On A Promise once the fav was withdrawn. Wish I had!

Outsider of the field and I’ve had a good look at that again with the last LIM before Xmas. Fisher Green is second time back after wind op and has winning form at the course. Fell LTO which will keep his price out long so he is tempting but ultimately not my first choice for winner as he, like a couple of others in this, does have questions marks over distance. As with Winds of Fire, his breeding suggests he might struggle and the fav also is unproven at it although his breeding is more conducive. Still a question mark though and he does have one novice effort over it at Wetherby suggesting 13/8 is a very short price to take about him winning. Weight penalty for last two wins (now 13lb higher than first win mark) and stable form also negatives and basically only doubt about him being a strong lay candidate is that he was staying on strongly over two miles LTO to suggest he ought to stay in conjunction with his breeding. Still very short though so he and Winds of Fire are lay candidates paving the way for a double lay and a Xmas punt at the value CSF on the other three.

I’m not ruling Fisher Green out simply because of his value price but the winner ought to be in the other two with the shortlist preferring Red Reminder whilst the BOZ is more taken with Hobbs’ 3/7 track record at Sedgefield and Dicky Johnson coming all the way up for the ride on Gavrocheka. Same connections have Camprond in the first race and that one is a shortlist pick so I suggest you keep an eye on that result and if it wins, temper enthusiasm for Gavrocheka a tad. They could both win of course. Mr McManus not unknown for his Xmas gambles! Wouldn’t put anyone off the double.

For my money Gavrocheka has the slightly better profile for this but whenever I take the shortlist on, I always cover myself. Been compiling it twenty years plus now and although I have my scalps in the head to heads, I am comprehensively behind on SR score. 43-12 to the shortlist!

It is however Gavrocheka for me on overall form including the second in the Aintree Listed race. Just that flop LTO that is of concern but you learn not to get too worried about that where McManus is concerned! Barney Curley has nothing on JP!

The ground might be slightly more in Red Reminder’s favour but the jockey booking is not and I stick with my boy although am recommending that you cover all bases seeing as we are on a double lay bank management wise and can therefore afford to speculate on the value inherent in the rest of the field!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on HART OF STEEL (around 2.7)

0.1pt LAY on WINDS OF FIRE (around 3.5)

0.05pt BACK on GAVROCHEKA (around 5.0)

0.05pt BACK on RED REMINDER (around 6.0)

0.01pt CSF on GAVROCHEKA,RED REMINDER & FISHER GREEN

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount 

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo

Allart

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

20th:     -0.278   (+0.7186) Lay @ 2.52 : Back @ 4.9

21st:     NON RUNNER

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +56.6206points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.0894 points (+13.0894 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 53.4817 points (+45.4817 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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