BOZmail 22nd AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY AUGUST 22nd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.1972 points (+2.1972 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.655 points (-0.345 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.6464 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.9340 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 43/56 = 76.78%  Backs : 7/25 = 28%

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LESS IS MORE:

1-40 UTTOXETER

Not for the first time this year, this race would not have made it as an LIM qualifier had there been others to choose from. Desperately difficult to pick between the top two – Cubswin and Beyond the Clouds. The former has to give a couple of pounds for winning their last encounter and is on a career high mark but he has the experience and times edge over Beyond the Clouds and dare I say it against the champion jockey, also has the class rider and no surprise to me if Bryony wins it again although the market might disagree and if Beyond the Clouds were to become a short price fav, I might be tempted to lay.

As it is on tissue, with the first four all pretty tight pricewise,  I do as I did with Lady Bowes last week and forego the lay because I don’t feel confident enough to cover what is a speculative bet on a former to follow horse Return Ticket who has the unknown factor of coming back after the 160+ days lay off. And returning to hurdles also. I had this in the serious novice chaser to watch category after impressing as a juvenile and running a sterling race at Wetherby behind Sam Spinner at monster odds on return from long lay off. Looked all over the winner when last seen at Kempton just before lockdown when ridden by our nemesis STD (most unusually) and the boy did his trademark horlicks at the last to lose the race. No other jockey ever more guilty of that having them on the wrong stride for the last and whereas I thought he had improved from his halcyon days, it is still the case that very often it’s the class of the horse that gets him over still winning (given that he is also very strong in a finish on the flat) and just the novices that continue to suffer his ‘bad driving’ when the pace is on over fences.

I was also astonished to see that Return Ticket has changed hands and stable. Gone from Richard Collins and Ruth Jefferson (Waiting Patiently combo) and bought by John Wade and sent to Rebecca Menzies presumably with ambitions of good things ahead. Certainly we get jockey of the moment Henry Brooke (who can be trusted to keep his cool at the wheel) and Rebecca also has the stable purring at the moment so I’m on side. Tissue 10/3 is measly short given the layoff but not just me thinks this horse has a high grade future. Has already run in Grade one over fences and has the class to win this if he’s primed and ready. I’ll be sneaking for a paddock watch on TV but am playing the race as a to follow back anyways unless Beyond the Clouds is very short by the off when I’ll also go LIM cover lay.

Of the other runners, Flashing Glance does represent value and could win at the mark whilst Purple King steps up in class without injured STD on board and might be a surprise winner for me but I will have a keen eye on him as he is on the formline of my Golden Town boy at Cartmel on Sunday.

Dunno if you’ve been watching Chester and York this week but lockdown factor still well in control on the flat with eight favs from nine (the 9/9 denied by a head!) winning at Chester and pretty much same at York on Friday. Off course markets in total control. Them computer algorithms are going to be our serious enemy of the future. Market watch and the exchanges become even more pertinently necessary if we are to stay ahead!

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on RETURN TICKET (Hoping to get bigger than the 4.33 available at tissue and get best price you can) 

7-55 NEWTON ABBOT (not yet run)

Big ask for Glengar in this despite getting lumps of weight. Is actually out of the handicap, well held by Bermeo on times and likely to be less well suited to the speedy nature of the track than some of the others. Does have Millie on board to negate the penalties imposed for her last two efforts but Sizing at Midnight would outclass if he returns fit and fancied whilst Cailin du Brizais would be the value of the race if recent form can be overlooked. Hasn’t won for three years but does like it here and is on a winnable mark again now.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on GLENGAR (around 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on CALIN DU BRIZAIS (around 9.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Yarmouth (Aug 25) & Lingfield (Aug 26)

Custard The Dragon – Entered at Musselburgh (Aug 26)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Bangor (Aug 25)

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Southwell (Aug 24)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Southwell (Aug 24)

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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