BOZmail – 22nd APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY APRIL 22nd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

4-55 CHEPSTOW

More potential LIMs today than you can shake a stick at. Been hard work narrowing down and one of these years, when somebody pays me enough, I’ll do a comprehensive race read on every qualifying race and construct a mega acca for the day. Form not always reliable over Easter as I’ve said but any with doubts clinging to them can quickly be scratched and you still have a clutch to make an acca with. Sticking with system for now until I get that invite to land the big multiple! You may send your invites anytime between now and next Easter!!

On that jolly holiday note, I run invite days to my home town track of Cartmel every year. May meets not far away now. Just an informal race day gathering and opportunity for BOZmailers to congregate and swop notes. If you fancy attending any of the May days – 25th,27th & evening of 29th – let me know and I’ll send details of what I offer (garyboswsell@hotmail.com). Help and advice with travel and accommodation.Plus local gossip and tips! There are still some cheap £5 course tickets going for the 29th which is my favourite Cartmel meet of the year. Can recommend that as a stress free evening for genuine lovers of NH racing. Cliff Richard is also on this year after racing should anyone be a fan!! My Auntie Pauline used to go wild over him!

And if you haven’t read the new rule 6 yet, give it another gander. What horse did I say was the only one who couldn’t win Sunday’s race?? And which one both brought up my ten in a row successful lays and foiled a mega serious gamble on Opechee who I was on at 28.0 this time and would have won but for another horror jump three or four out. Murphys Law really does follow me round and is the main reason I invented the LIM approach. Winning when I lost!! What a bummer.

Opechee needs to learn to jump obviously but have put both him and Endless Credit on my to watch NTO list. Endless Credit is entered later in the week.

Anybody land the triple lay?? I never saw the late move for Holryale and am not sure whether that ever dipped below 3.0. Was a good play if you managed it!

And so to Monday and the final Easter weekend madness!

Darts fans stand ready as we take on The Deller Checkout at likely short odds on despite being up 9lb for his maiden chase win LTO against a horse who was badly handicapped against him. I’ll be surprised if he wins by same 9 length margin here.

Easy Street is a moody sort probably at best over shorter who could win it if the Jonjo father and son combo get a tune out but the more likely challenger comes from the other two. I would expect Lovely Job to take him on for the lead and he could well outclass under a top Sean Bowen ride. I saw him do same at Ffos Las Sunday with a masterclass front running ride.

Shanahan’s Turn would however be my idea of main threat if he reproduces the form he showed in October here against Charbel & Baron Alco. Up in trip and not an obvious candidate for that whereas Thedellercheckout is all about stamina. Shanahan’s Turn has got winning form in Ireland over the longer distance however and if Tizzard’s yard not too depressed, he’d be my main fancy to upset the odds with this drop down in class. He was the class hurdler of the field and would also look most poised to benefit from the quick ground. Down to jumping and given prices, I put main emphasis in this on keeping the lay run going. Thus…

Recommendation:

0.7pt LAY on THE DELLERCHECKOUT (around 1.46 not greater than 1.8)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

21st:     +0.194 (+2.346)LAY @ 2.62 : BACK @ 28.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 90/126 = 71.42% :   BACKS: 20/83 = 24.09%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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