BOZmail – 21st SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 21st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

5-00 NEWMARKET

Think I said Shaman Du Berlais wanted shorter yesterday.What I meant was further of course. Apologies for that. More evidence of my oncoming senility! Didn’t affect the result thankfully. LIM continues in decent recovery.

Two Saturdays I invented Less is More to avoid were St leger Saturday and Ayr Gold Cup Saturday! Racing proper starts tomorrow for the winter months with two lovely meetings at Hamilton and Plumpton! Not joking. Saturday is often keep hands in pockets time but this Saturday is as good an example of that as I’ve ever seen! I’ve got a fun runner in the Ayr Silver Cup to trade (below) and I’ll risk the minimum LIM stake on a little play in this four runner at Newmarket. That’s yer lot!

Between two for me. Johnston’s Quintada and Hills’ Stagehand. Marginal preference for Quintada on stable form and the 2lb weight received. Could be close though! They were second and third at Wolverhampton recently with a 3lb turnaround in the weights giving Quintada his chance especially as I think he’ll prefer the return to HQ more.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on STAGEHAND (around 1.6 : no greater than 1.9)

0.1pt BACK on QUINTADA ( around 4.5)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

19th:    +1.595 (+0.4225) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 10.0

20th:    +0.245 (+0.6675) Lay @ 2.38

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 161/246 = 65.44% :   BACKS: 47/166 = 28.31%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.96 points. 

SHORTLIST SYSTEM NAPS PERMED FOUR TIMER (4 bet perm) to be staked at 0.01pt unit stakes at Newton Abbot on 20/9/19. Total Spend = 0.04 points

2-00 Ruthless Article(11/8) – 1st – Footloose(12/1) – NR

2-30 Exxaro(8/1) – PU

3-35 Sizing Tara(2/1) – 1st – Shanksforamillion(7/2) – Fell

4-45 Sinakar(3/1)- 4th – Gardiner’s Hill(12/1) – 1st         

Well, that constitutes a near miss with the new shortlist nap factor performing well again but providing its first runner not to run its race in Exxaro who ran like he had a bad bout of constipation (who knows? May have done) and sadly that’s the thing with accas. Only takes one to spoil it. We knew our fate early with Exarro and hindsight says I should have stuck to traditional staggered acca with Caius Marcius sluicing in again. No regrets though. Near miss. Never mind a near miss and Footloose’s defection meant only four stakes needed and so next to no damage. Soon get that back when the next staggered acca occurs. Will shout as and when. The full shortlist scored 5/6 and only went down on that same second race and also found a neat £48 forecast in the fourth where our Shanksforamillion was an unlucky faller.       

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered at Hamilton (Sep 22)

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt 

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

2-40 AYR – JAMES WATT @ 40/1 – 0.1pt BACK 

Fun play for me. Likely to get bigger than 40s on the exchange and will look to hedge in running as usual when appropriate. Hard to say what sort of chance he’s got. Just a horse I like who’s been trained for this. Draw important. Jockey booking very interesting.

Probably an each way chance but trade for me with a decent scream in the last furlong if he’s still in with a chance. Simple play on a Saturday largely to Less is More avoid!!

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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