BOZmail 21st SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 21st  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +16.1279 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.5771 points (+5.5771 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.5363 points (+11.5363 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 79/111 = 71.17%  Backs : 21/67 = 31.34%

1-15 WARWICK

I used to write all the time about LIM races and why they were designed as they are but don’t seem to have done that so much this year. Just in the past few days that I’ve been reminded why LIM is as it is and that race on Sunday a perfect example. Got the underpriced fav correctly identified (he jumped like a horse asking why am I doing this again – only did it four days ago?!) but couldn’t have picked the winner or the second with a bargepole and of the three I fancied one pulled up, one finished last and the other a poor 4th! But we come out with a 4th winner in four tries in the past week and that is how LIM is supposed to be. First time this year it has been so. Let’s hope that can be taken as a sign for things getting back to normal! Did get a fabulous price on I’dliketheoption (was some 18.0 in my averaged 16.0) and there was a slight late run of money that I’d waited nearly 24 hours to see. Nobody told the horse however! He ran like one seriously out of love with the game. He goes on no lists anywhere until he shows some degree of enthusiasm again.

And on to Monday where I have two races to seriously choose between again for the first time in ages. I like the 3-35 on the flat at Leicester of course because there is a 1/20 horse to take on!! LIM has landed a couple of these in its history (the famous two race at Wincanton where the Nicholls 1/20 shot got quagmired in the ground and lost to a 10/1 rag!! Crystal clear in my memory bank still that one). Perhaps less likely to occur to Dhabyah and after the day they had in France on Saturday, Messrs Haggas and Marquand probably think they only have to turn up to collect. They will not however know quite what they are taking on in bumper horse Little Jessture from our to follow list. Nor, fair to say, do we really but my time figures test for her win over Beholden was replicated when well beaten NTO and she isn’t a million miles away from Dhabyah on my figures. Other than that I can offer no more insight except that again LIM was invented for races like this. A 2pt lay on Dhabyah for just a 0.1pt liability nearly had me playing here but I’ll leave it to the trade plays below seeing as we have a to follow up against it and instead I choose this Novices Handicap Chase at Warwick for LIM. 

Kittys Light has a potential easier race than when 2nd LTO but there are negatives in the stable form (she’s the only Christian Williams horse running well at the moment) and she has another 2lb penalty for not winning LTO so that meets Blue N Yellow on 10lb worse terms than when separated by just two and a half lengths at Stratford – a race in which Blue N Yellow suffered a horrendous interference early in the race. So with the prices as they are, I’d normally be all over the chance of the Tom George charge but he did run a funny one NTO and does look a candidate for not being a natural for the step up in distance. Stable and jockey are in rude health however (Carver runs at 40% for the past fortnight) and Tom George is a good judge of novice chasers normally and is at a track he likes. I’m prepared to trust that he knows something we don’t. Obvious cover isn’t visible but North Star Oscar has some positives for Chase debut (ground and wind op) and in any case, LIM cover can come from anywhere when the conditions are against the fav as we saw on Sunday!

At the prices, it is a value play.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on KITTYS LIGHT (around 2.0. Get the lowest price you can)

0.05pt BACK on BLUE N YELLOW (around 5.0)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic 

Young Wolf – Entered @ Warwick (Sep 22)

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAYS on MONDAY:

12-45 WARWICK – BALAGAN @ 11/4 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

Got to give lumps to rivals again and three obvious dangers but Bryony gets a great tune on this one out front and not without hope he could do as several have in this spell and run up a winning sequence. Trade play for me however here with getting as high a price as I can and hedging out before the off. Wouldn’t be overly worried if not greened out before the off because of the front running style. Am not looking for massive profits here though. Happy to turn any kind of guaranteed win.

3-35 LEICESTER – LITTLE JESSTURE @ 14/1 – 0.1pt BACK

If Dhabyah does hit 1/20 on the exchanges or anywhere near 1.05, I’d be tempted to take that to 2pt and hedge back some before the off and take a bit into inplay in case Little Jessture or the other difficult to assess commodity can sound some alarm bells on the track. This is definitely a play to do serious market watch on for me and the early post is 1.15 for the lay. I’ll see if that contracts. Probably the more guaranteed profit play is to take Little Jessture at 15.0 or bigger and hedge on that as soon as it is offered. I’d be happy with a free bet on LJ given that the upset isn’t totally out of the realms. Mainly however, I’m in this one also to just show any kind of trade profit whichever way it seems best to achieve from what you see during market watch. A fascinating race to study in the market if you are an aspiring trader! Very little liability whichever way you choose!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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