BOZmail – 21st OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY OCTOBER 21st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.436 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-40 PLUMPTON

Was very keen on Wencelaus for this after initial race read where I was expecting Code of Law to be a fancied fav and was very keen to take him on. Wrong time of year and wrong ground for him. Agent Westy was my idea of the danger but I wasn’t expecting him to be an odds on fav! Changes my tactics somewhat but still fairly keen on the play. Code of Law is now out of the picture as a 7/1 shot and I’m not keen on Enforcement as a novice with limited speed and more to learn although he is realistically the only danger to the front two as Killabraher Cross could have won this a few years back but seems to have become a serious slowcoach in his old age and is 13lb out of the handicap here.

So I remember the Agent Westy win at Fontwell very well and he warmed into his race after being outpaced and seemingly struggling early on. Stayed on well at the end up the hill to beat Brown Bear who was fancied that day (by me and the Shortlist system) and breeding suggests he’ll be even better over further. Bred very much with extreme distances in mind. National horse potentially long term.

It was a strong mid race spurt that got him into contention at Fontwell and he does that again here and he will bring trouble to Wenceslaus. He is penalised 8lb for that last time out win but still gets weight off Wenceslaus who also ran the latter part of his Chase debut the best behind the very smart Marie Banrigh.

Should be a good contest and I won’t now be going as hefty as I’d been planning when I expected Code of Law as a fav we could confidently oppose. I stick with Wenceslaus however as very much a horse to follow as it comes into the Chasing arena. Hurdle win times were good and his second at Uttoxeter was a particularly pleasing effort under penalty. He showed good attitude and battled for it that day and that could stand him in good stead here if it gets down to a speed finish where I might expect him to assert. Agent Westy the stamina horse but Plumpton more about speed really so Wenceslaus is the play.Is it worth laying Agent Westy when the only horse fancied to beat him is ours? Well, he could fall of course or disappoint so there’s a purist yes to answer that question but I’m inclined to play bank management here and miss out the lay and treat this as a to follow bet. Wenceslaus is my horse. I could wish the stable in better form but other than that, this is one to follow for me and I think he might just have the speed to win this. Back only.

Recommendation:

0.25pt BACK on WENCESLAUS (around 4.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 176/268 = 65.67% :   BACKS: 51/182 = 28.02%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.792 points. 

(FOURTH LEG:)

Will shout when next leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

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 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricastfor a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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