BOZmail 21st OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 21st  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +36.5374 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.3978 points (+7.3978 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 38.3251 points (+30.3251 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 94/130 = 72.30%  Backs : 25/79 = 31.64%

4-15 HEREFORD

Kittys Light deserves to go on the to follow list for that (but I fear we may have missed the boat with her for now. Keep on the subs bench though for when mark relents. Her attitude is outstanding) and it was one of three scenarios I could see the race taking and at the price it became the value one. Trust some of you followed the nudge. I’ll content with having the LIM lay percentage up at 72.3 which is alright for this late in the cycle and in such a year. Nearly 6% above the norm. Let’s see if I can keep that going.

Wednesday’s play features an old friend of ours in Prettylittlething who looks on a mark and at a value price if the jockey can be trusted. She rode it ok out the back last time and stayed on as the cobwebs were brushed aside. The main job here will be to stay on and let the horse do its stuff cos on a going day, can be fancied here. The fav The Boola Bee looks high in the weights and got to give 21lb to Richard Price’s returnee, Eastern Lady who has been off nearly two years. Price hasn’t had a winner himself in the same period but a very canny betting stable and the fact it is such a short price flags up what the bookies think here. They smell a possible coup! Miss Zip is further LIM cover but also looks on a high mark now so that Prettylittlething has her chance on the book as indeed would Still Believing have should she return to form. Been very under the weather of late.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on THE BOOLA BEE (around 2.8)

0.1pt BACK on PRETTYLITTLETHING (around 10.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24) & Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat – Entered @ Cheltenham(Oct 23)

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie      

Soldier of Love – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE horse on Wednesday at Hereford:

1-15 Timetoroe @ 4/1 – 0.1pt BACK 

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

I wouldn’t be huge on this with Mick Mona and especially Marada looking massive dangers receiving weight. All Timetoroe’s best runs have come on testing ground although that sometimes also means the horse will like good to firm and I’m expecting that is Archie Watson’s reasoning if he lets it run. He’ll know more about the horse than me of course and he is certainly a man who knows what he’s doing and with his missus on board, you have to think they may smell something again.

My main interest in the race is that if Timetoroe carries its penalty for the win LTO, that will be a huge form boost to two of my main dark horse to follows of the moment in Lady Bowes and She’s a Rocca.

Overall however, a pre race trade here for me rather than a bet and I’ll content with whatever small profit I can engender either way and then see if she does run a barnstormer which will lead to a big bet on the other two at some time in their future!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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