BOZmail 21st NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 21st  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 111/153 = 72.54%  Backs : 30/96 = 31.25%

1-15 HAYDOCK

All about the jumping it was on Friday and The BOZ got it right in swerving Pic D’Orhy who might have won if he’d stood up. Likewise Birchdale and a second good call in that race was not having a back because I would have been all over Snookered to beat Informateur but he also fell when beat at the last. No need to take anything from that race other than all the runners are potential lays in the future!

And I’m back on the bike a bit after an iffy week and coming into a good weekend’s racing. This is a smasher of a race to whet the appetite for the Lancashire Cup later. I had a decent look at that and was contemplating a simple conservative back on LostinTranslation as the LIM if Birchdale defied me on Friday. I do fancy the Gold Cup third to uphold his form over Clan Des Obeaux and Bristol De Mai but the first run of the season aspect stays my hand a bit and anyways, I can afford to be a bit more adventurous now that Birchdale got beat and I choose this Graduation Chase which is chock full of smart horses. Master Tommytucker did well for us LTO but I forego him here as Harry Cobden deserts and his jumping will come under close scrutiny again over these fences. STD will do well to get him round and even if he does, he has two serious rivals in Dashel Drasher and Good Boy Bobby. The former looks the potential star in the field and he has Course and Distance form round here but does have over a year off to overcome and I thus plump for Good Boy Bobby whose LTO win over Antunes took a form boost on Friday and he looks a smashing horse sure to revel in the step up in trip and slightly edges Master Tommytucker on my time figures. Interesting that STD rides the Nicholls horse rather than his Dad’s but Jacob would be the retained rider for Munir and Souede so that is consistent with that and I’d be with Daryl in a tight finish anyways should Master Tommytucker stand the test of pressure sure to be put on his jumping and still be there at the finish.

The other three horses in the race no back numbers either. A serious contest in store on an exciting weekend. I shall have Good Boy Bobby as last leg of my Haydock acca as well ( see below ) to create some hedging opportunities should those two good trade horses get the day off to a good start!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MASTER TOMMYTUCKER ( around 3.0 or lower if you can get it )

0.05pt BACK on GOOD BOY BOBBY ( around 5.5 )

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou – Entered @ Haydock (Nov 21)

Soaring Glory – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 23) & Wetherby (Nov 25)

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River – Entered @ Musselburgh,Kempton & Ludlow (Nov 23)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 23)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Nov 22)   

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Nov 22) & Musselburgh (Nov 23)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track) Entered @ Musselburgh (Nov 23)

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28)

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess – Entered @ Haydock (Nov 21)

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-10 HAYDOCK – FLIC OU VOYOU @ 15/8 – 0.25pt

12-40 HAYDOCK – SNOW LEOPARDESS @ 7/1 – 0.25pt

Get the best prices that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are on offer.

Quite sweet on these two although doubts about Flic being as good on this ground and Snow Leopardess race looks fairly competitive and so I go trade on both but with the intention of having some leeway to play in running especially on Snow Leopardess who I can see liking this ground and the course so very hopeful she’ll be in the mix at the finish and 1.1 and 1.01s will be on standby. Her LTO form looked particularly smart staying on well behind the mighty impressive Shan Blue.

I will also play a 0.01pt Win Treble from the accumulator bank on the first three races at Haydock to include these two plus the LIM back Good Boy Bobby.

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

****************************************************

LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +48.8496points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.4978 points (+11.4978 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 47.1123 points (+39.1123 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3885 points (-0.6115 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *