BOZmail – 21st MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MAY 21st 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

7-20 HEXHAM

A wide open event that requires a lifetime best from old boy and Hexham stalwart Beyondtemptation but he’s only 1lb high and you always know what you are going to get with him. He’ll blast out and try to hang on. Times suggest he might succeed.

For Three is marginal fav for his handicap debut after winning here last time but there are four others who could outexperience him and in a race that I wouldn’t try to nail the winner, I’ll play small and safe and lay the fav.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on FOR THREE (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.3)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0                   

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 104/151 = 68.87% :   BACKS: 26/98 = 26.53%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Epsom (May 31) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 12.3429 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 5)

7-15 LEICESTER – LAY on CASEMENT – WON

Well that was hard work. Not the race itself which went to plan as Casement didn’t stay as market predicted (my morning review and the market drift encouraged rather than discouraged me) and Geetanjali got a masterclass Hayley ride to keep my women jockey’s theme going. The hard work was in the price but having got a bit at 2.2 last night, I persevered and backed all morning in small increments hoping the price would come down but it didn’t and ended up getting my morning target I set myself at  1.3966 averaged odds liability for just under 1pt and thus the staggered acca carries on. I want a certificate for mathematical competence however because I’ve basically spent half the day on the calculator! Don’t worry if you decided to abort because of price and parameters. You’ll just start next leg as though it was leg 4 and they will be similar criteria types from now on until I declare I’ve had enough. Lay accas are more solid than Back accas but they also remove some of the thrill. Might therefore be a one off.

Will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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