BOZmail – 21st JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY JUNE 21st  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

Quarter Final Match at Edgbaston

The tennis continues to repair my LIM score with 4/4 now on the daily nap match bets so no surprise that I stay there for the duration now. Did a bit better at Ascot today with the two trades both successful finishing well. I thought the Raise You form was enhanced again although perhaps not absolute top drawer level. More winners to come from it however. I go back to horses next week so long as Dee Ex Bee wins or gets close to the Gold Cup! (Got quite close!)

The tennis remains fascinating and a great tournament so far for opposing favourites as you’ll have seen. When you get that, persevere. I do a full talk through the quarter finals below but my Friday LIM play is to stick with Ostapenko. Martic represents similar opposition to Konta so if Ostapenko reproduces Wednesday’s form, I take her to prevail. I’ve just done my grass power chart table for the Wimbledon preview and Jelena scores high on that. Fourth in the WTA list (but highest appearing at Edgbaston) and number one on my table because her age and return to current form give her a strong edge. I said before that grass brings out the best in her and overcoming that slight age related tightening second set v Konta was good for her confidence I think. If she bosses and bullies and struts on centre court Friday, I expect her to win cleanly again.Martic does have a back form plus but they haven’t met before on Jelena’s number one surface. Ostapenko can be the epitome of yoyo tennis but on form and on grass, she can also be ruthlessly consistent. Not 37th in the world any more after this week. And so when more confident and with odds against I go back to BACK rather than LAY as the value play.More liability but also more winnings. Still not quite 1pt level as I started the week as Martic is better opposition than those in the early round bets and I am also playing strategic LIM bank management.

Recommendation:

0.35pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO v Martic @ 15/13

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

20th:    +0.294(+2.413) Lay @ 1.33

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 113/169 = 66.86% :   BACKS: 29/109 = 26.60%

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Australian Open = +0.283

French Open      = +2.74

Nottingham P/L = Break even

Edgbaston P/L   = +5.4083

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

EDGBASTON REPORT:

Quarter final line up:

Ostapenko v Martic

See above

Kr Pliskova v Strycova

Would have considered this for LIM if Ostapenko hadn’t been playing. Strycova is red hot on grass and holds the back form but elder Pliskova twin is unplayable at times on grass courtesy of her serve. Serious ace queen. And played very well to displace her sister. So value at 6/4 and I wouldn’t put you off the trade play as another fav that could be vulnerable. Not in Ostapenko’s league as a bet however.

Putintseva v Goerges

Not sure if this plays Friday or Saturday but I expect Goerges to be strong fav with a 3-0 on the head to head and yet to play on grass where Goerges shines so much with her power drive that was too much for a Rodina that played ok today. No chink in the mindset of the German for Rodina to exploit and so rankings prevailed and should do so again in the QF. Putintseva did her job eliminating a totally lacklustre Osaka. Good score but it flatters her. She will be competitive but a confident call on the German for our outrights bet.

Barty v Venus

The new world number one v one of the two undisputed queens of grass (from the same family!). I saw Venus Monday night in her doubles with Harriet Dart and she looked like a bent old woman hobbling round the first couple of games but the warm up completed, she soon graced us with the indomitable and extraordinary prowess. Hardly dimmed at all on grass. I did wonder why she turned up for this. She doesn’t usually play the Wimbledon warm ups. Does she know something about Serena that makes her think she has a shot this year? She looked a woman on a mission v Wang.

Can she beat Barty? At a price, I might play. Barty has the back and current form but Venus is Venus. And Value Venus might be hard to resist. If this plays Saturday, expect me to get interested!

My one remaining for the outrights is as follows:

Goerges – 22/1 : Current plus = + 2.2 points or -0.1point loss

Didn’t manage my outrights lay on Osaka and not laying Barty! So probably leaving as is with the possible introduction of Ostapenko. More on that after tomorrow.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman

Pour Me A Drink

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars

DAY THREE TRADES AT ROYAL ASCOT:

3-05 EIGHTSOME REEL @ 25/1 – 0.1pt BACK to LAY – 4th

        ROSEMAN @ 10/1 – 0.1pt BACK TO LAY – 5th

4-20 DEE EX BEE @ 6/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 2nd

Did a bit better managing hedges on all three who all ran well without winning.

Couldn’t resist the 3/1 hedge on Dee Ex Bee when I saw how the fav was travelling under Frankie but he did stay very well and I’d not give up hope in him. Ran with credit.

All three stay on the to follow. And so ends my 2019 Royal Ascot without much damage done and conkers still ostensibly intact. You gotta go with what you know!

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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