BOZmail – 21st JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JUNE 21st  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.6625 points (-1.3375 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.778 points (+4.876 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.0695 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 3/9 = 33.33%  Backs : 0/5 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Can’t pretend it’s going well at the minute but we come out of Royal Ascot better than we went in thanks to Muker. What to do next? Well I’m still in favour of waiting until the volatile spell ends as I know many of you are too. That said I’ve found a trade for Sunday that should keep that aspect of things ticking over. A new concept called the LIM trade to see if we can’t get that working for us until the NH racing resumes.

4-45 REDCAR

I saw Revolver win LTO at Pontefract under an inspired ride from Luke Morris to land a typical Prescott progression pattern victory first time in handicap that often follows up soon after with another run over further where even more progress is expected. I can’t argue with that but of course it is a well known to the bookmakers scenario and hence they have Revolver at 2/5 with every possibility of 1/3 close to the off and that gives us chance to trade. All his running was done at the death LTO to overcome a typical Johnston front runner and fair to say few jockeys but Morris would have got it up. McCoy style failure to accept defeat and seriously throwing the kitchen sink at Revolver who did just respond. Same jockey and trainer against him again with Warranty and nothing on paper to suggest an unexpected result but as a normal LIM bet with profit in the bank I might take it on purely because of the small liability. They were 18 lengths clear of the third LTO so no crabbing the form but Johnston and Fanning have a marker to work from and over the extra two furlongs I don’t entirely rule out the shock result occurring. Fanning is a master from the front and Revolver does have stamina to prove. And off the pace of course he therefore gives us chance to trade in running having laid at around 1/3 with a back at evens in running the rough guideline marker. But take what you can get. A profit is all we are after at the moment.

If it were a normal LIM with moolah to speculate with I might just risk a shekel on Roman Empress just because outsiders are certainly coming in all around at the moment. Has done the trip LTO at Wolverhampton and that run is better than it looks having beaten a couple of decent sorts with a good move two out and behind an impressive eventual winner in Stagaire.

So here’s the play for a first official LIM trade

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on REVOLVER (around 1.4. Take as low a price as you can get to be hedged in running or before the off if it should go on a significant drift)

0.02pt BACK on ROMAN EMPRESS (around 34.0 or best you can get likewise to be

hedged in running or before the off if you get offered attractively preferential odds) 

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3375) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 18)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE ON SATURDAY:

2-25 ASCOT – RUN WILD @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 7.8 (averaged) : Hedged in running 0.35pt @ 3.4 = P/L +0.098

Had my free bet in place close to off when the market shove for the American horse based purely on what the telly was saying shoved our boy right out to 8.4 and more.

So I went in again confident we would be front running with ample chance to hedge into a profit either way. Asked for 0.35pt @ 4.1 and got matched at 3.4 and would have had more on if I’d known that as was left with a 0.84 on the win which was quickly out of the question as the horse folded like an origami duck. Ground still playing silly beggars? With a 150/1 winner race before, I’d say so. Still holding ground early doors. Even so, Run Wild went out like a light as the Frankie factor kicked in and is off the list for that. Profit made on a loser again. Not as much as Bet Angel would have made but it’ll do for me at the moment as a torrid fixed odds tipping period continues.

Two new horses added to the to follow list. One pointed out by a BOZmailer which is Chappel Hyam’s On My Way. Have watched that VTR and am equally impressed. A stamp of a horse worth following.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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