BOZmail 21st JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


TUESDAY JULY 21st  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.4738 points (+0.4738 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.1492 points (+6.1492 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.539 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.8266 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 25/33 = 75.75%  Backs : 2/12 = 16.66%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Monday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on BLACK ANTHEM (around 2.2. Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered)

Trade play: Laid @ 2.26 : Hedged 0.12pt @ 2.66 : P/L = +0.01pt

Total Trade P/L = +  0.01pt       (+0.1717pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L =   -0.189pts (+0.056pts)

1-2 after another decisive victory to the traders! Non traders take the sort of hit you have to take as a non trader as the guesswork failed to bail me out on my selection.

Was a fairly easy trade with Johnson not riding so plenty of 2.8 to back around before the off and during the race. Four out he looked beat but then the fact that he was the one in the field with a run behind him kicked in. We are still in that territory. May  trade for a little longer after all!

4-40 PERTH

Spent Monday on three successful trades for miniscule profit (The Sangha River one was painful profit wise but it did its job and further confirmed that formline to the extent that some shape is already taking place to the NH season and we can begin to be cautiously hopeful of a better second half to the year) but I have to confess the rest of 2020 is gonna be a  bit spiceless if we carry on like this. But as I answered to a few queries over the weekend, if winning £2-50 from your £1000 bank doesn’t seem worth all the hassle (and it’s an argument you can’t easily dismiss on the face), remember that 100 days of making £2-50 per day makes your bank 25% bigger at £1250 and that’s a decent ROI in anybody’s world. Of course it is incumbent on the trades being successful each day. A loser does wreck that a bit and so the psychology needed is the one that accepts the miniscule profit soon as achieved and shuts the satchel for the day. A serious discipline for the hardened gambler is that but several of you have intimated that you signed up here to become more professional about your betting and investments. Trust your Uncle Gaz.In the climate we are currently in,(trainers having to send their horses to courses they wouldn’t normally dream of sending to,in races not really suitable, unfit or fit?)  anything other than that approach is bloody risky and highly likely to land you in the sort of stew I found myself in mid June after just four losing days on the trot. Took me 15 days to repair that and that was mighty good work if I say so myself. Took me three months in my early days of playing like this to recover something like that.

Yes, you can go gung ho and try and blast your way out or into big plus. Some tipsters and gamblers will try that at the moment and some will succeed. And some will go bust. You didn’t sign up to this expecting either of those I hope! I do neither.

I tread along cautiously day by day determined to avoid losing as much as is possible. Not been perfect this year. Not by a long way. But still in there doing what it says on the tin. 

And stealing that moniker from one of yous guys, I am announcing that I am feeling  almost ready and able to have a go at LIM without trading for a week to see how we go. Wrote that before the Black Anthem result and before studying tomorrow’s race however and have inserted the almost as a proviso since. Results like Fanzio have been coming along consistently for the past week or two now so I’m going to attempt to string some winning lay of the day runs together on LIM soon now and then take stock. Your trading practice can carry on for a bit though whilst we see how we go starting in the 4-40 at Perth taking on Heavey who was the recipient of the luckiest win ever LTO at Exeter as you may remember.  

Was cantering along the last 100 yards having accepted 3rd place when the two in front suddenly jinked away together for a snog or a bite out of each other’s necks and Heavey was gifted the win on a platter for which he receives a slightly unfortunate hike in the weights for his Chase debut.

Mulholland does think a bit of him and yer man has had three winners from last five runners so is perhaps one to be a bit wary of so I am keeping stake down and trading again.

Hasn’t run for over 250 days since that lucky win so likely to be ring rusty and unlike Monday where we relied on two who patently weren’t fit to bring the form challenge to light, the horse in the race with a run under belt is Oliver Greenall’s Serosevsky. A horse I know quite well who was on my to follow for a while as a novice hurdler. Ponderous sort who always looked likely to make a chaser but has been disappointing so far and is perhaps not in love with big fences although Oliver sends him a long way to persevere here. Is that a hint or not? No way of knowing at the moment. Brian takes the ride though and I’m encouraged by that and if I was backing one I’d probably plump for his fitness but there is also Nicky Richards’ topweight in the field. Rubytwo ran well despite lockdown on Sunday and I know this yard of course and would trust them to get them out fit FTO. Not always about fitness mind. Just the racecourse blow that kills off the cobwebs – a state you can’t recreate back home. Court Dreaming also a player all the same.

And there are the three negatives for Heavey. That undeserved hike in the ratings, his 250+ days off and most importantly his chase debut.  Has come from Point to Point so will be expected to jump but has to prove can do so at Rules pace.

Probably a worthy favourite on the form and does promise a bit of speed that could do this lot if he’s bouncing. Those three negatives make him a lay at the price however.

My confidence after getting Black Anthem wrong also makes him another trade recommendation. Would personally rather go along with miniscule profit every day for a while longer until the corner is decisively turned. Rather than risk any more hits.

Trader or Non Trader though. The choice is still yours.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on HEAVEY (around 4.5. Much higher than expected so try for much lower if you can.I have restricted stake accordingly. Get the best price you can to be hedged as appropriate when preferential odds are offered)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Ascot (July 25) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way – Entered for Ascot (July 26)

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered for Perth (July 21) & Uttoxeter (July 23)

Balagan 

Perle Rose – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 23)

Ashutor – Entered for Newton Abbot (July 24)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 23) & Newton Abbot (July 24)

Lord Condi

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE on MONDAY:

12-00 Market Rasen -Sangha River @1/2 – 0.25pt BACK – WON

Backed @ 1.47 : Hedged  0.3pts @ 1.2 (averaged from segments – some taken in running) = P/L +0.0563pts

12-35 Market Rasen – Aleatoric @ 9/1 – 0.1pt BACK – UNPLACED

Backed @ 14.0 : Hedged 0.12pts @ 10.5 (all done night before) = P/L +0.0196pts

Get the best prices that you can and hedge when appropriate as preferential odds are offered.

Two very different types of trade. Aleatoric was only going to be long term interesting if able to reproduce that FTO effort but running from the front didn’t pay and he showed true worth fading badly. Scratched off the list for that.Made me £1-96 for the effort for which I thank him profusely! Sangha River held his formline up very well and stays on the list and brought another along with him who ran very well in second. I was pretty confident he’d win as I said last night (me and three quarters of the country!) so he was worth trading in running. Didn’t make as much on him as I might have and not as much as gamblers did but they lost on Aleatoric. It all evens out in the end! 

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE on TUESDAY:

4-10 PERTH – CHECK MY PULSE @ 11/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge when appropriate as preferential odds are offered.

Similar to Aleatoric here. Not much expected but a maybe horse for the future if able to reproduce that FTO run. Prepared to win miniscule if he does show it again in current climate so very much a trade only recommendation. 

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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