JANUARY 2021 – 31 day extension to
BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail
Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet (replaced from January 21st onwards by THE BOZNAP)
THURSDAY JANUARY 21st 2021 (second edition)
& FRIDAY JANUARY 22nd
EXTENSION DAY 21 & 22:
LESS IS MORE
Wincanton survived but Rosie and Millie didn’t.
I, however, had a long think Wednesday night anyways and decided on a change of plan for the remainder of this extension. As you know my plan had been to try for an LIM intensive in a month I know to be a stern test for that approach. That after the initial plan for the LIM first half of the month and Australian Open tennis second half was scuppered by COVID -19 rearrangement dates to the latter.
Fair to say that my revised LIM intensive month started well with a 12 day winning streak that took in the end of the December 2020 cycle also. Wheels have fallen off since with an eight day losing streak and whilst mega cautious staking has limited damage, the continued weather issues that blight January carry on playing havoc and I have responded to yesterday’s instinct that I shut my satchel on the winnings I still have in the bank and decided to accept the unattractive tipping aspect that is LIM in the second half of January (as proved by all historical stats) and instead change tack.
I also spent Wednesday evening re-reading my version of the Bible written and published in Betting Insiders magazine (April 2017 edition) called THE IMPORTANCE OF BREAKING EVEN and adopted since into BOZmail Golden Rule number 5. It really is the fountain of all wisdom and best thing I ever wrote! (he said modestly).
I have quoted it on here before but a few reminders (for myself and longstanding BOZmailers who share my philosophy on betting) and I recommend returning to it whenever times get tough. I have it on my bedside table for that very purpose. I quote here also for those who have never seen it. Shout and I’ll photocopy and send the entire text which I no longer have on my computer files but remains in hard copy where it somehow seems to belong.Here the choice quotes I have responded to at this time:
“…..In my 2016 annual tipping cycle, I had just six successful backs at 10/1 or over. That’s with tipping every day, seven days a week. Likewise , my longest winning streak was just 8 days achieved last week of August. All seven of these successes were however notable for not having to cover any losses of substance. They were all pretty much pure winnings and there were no balancing losses of any great note simply because of the way I play day to day now. Doing my damnedest to stay at break even, or just either side thereof. So that when I land the big one, I push my annual figure well forward. It is a psychology that I can recommend……”
“…..Yes, you have to endure losing days but so you should also seek all the time to not let them descend into destructive bank busting streaks. Prepare yourself instead for the peaks of a long priced winner not needed to cover any losses…..”
That’s just the pertinent bits. Always worth reading the whole shebang whenever the time is as it is now.
Got +0.4516 points profit still for January 2021. Potential for losing that and more by carrying on with LIM through the rest of the second half of January as Nightboattoclyro proved yesterday. Time to draw a line under the LIM intensive in the extension and switch to a long rested alternative daily approach – The BOZnap. This is where I tip my best bet of the day not restricted by LIM qualifying race criteria. The other thing I can do as a tipster to land us a decent winner ( or not ). I do LIM annually because annually it is proven to score better over 12 months than the BOZnap. Second half of January though, the BOZnap is safer! And we have some LIM secure January profit still in bank. Not going to use all of it. So we still guarantee showing a profit for January. Only small but THE IMPORTANCE OF BREAKING EVEN adhered to. Have a go at stabbing a decent winner or two that we don’t have to cover with losses.
11 days remain including today Thursday and I will seek to post a BOZnap every day to be staked to 0.025pt. Thus using 0.275pts of the remaining 0.4516pts if they all lose. Which they might. Better prospect though than what I’ve endured the last ten days of losers and non runners and storm Christoph’s (weren’t half windy here last night!). Just my best bet of the day unfettered for the next eleven days to see the 2020 cycle out in profit and maintaining the importance of breaking even in the eventuality of no further successes.
Starting today. Thursday January 21st as we reroute to the evening meeting at Newcastle.
THE BOZNAP is
6-30 Newcastle – IT JUST TAKES TIME @ best priced 7/1
Tinkler’s horses remain running to form and this one spotted winning over 5f LTO in the manner of a horse wanting further as suggested in breeding. Time was good and Tinkler runs again up in class receiving weight from main rivals. Made my to follow list on the impression created LTO to suggest defying the 9lb rise was now well within his scope. Value price in view of the rise in class of opposition.
& The BOZNAP for Friday January 22nd is:
2-35 LINGFIELD – BRIAN THE SNAIL @ best priced 11/4
Was initially Archie Watson’s Timetoroe at Ffos Las but that has just been abandoned and I switch to the all weather again where we are at least likely to get a run (no guarantees anywhere really at the minute though) as Fahey’s inmate meets two rivals in Aberama Gold & Above on better terms than when finishing behind LTO. Looks poised to return to the winner’s enclosure with Fahey’s string still in prime form.
Both BOZNAP’s recommended as backs at 0.025pt stake using current LIM bank.
BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +59.2602points
LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
Currently stands at : 33.6711 points (+13.6711 points)
LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 134/195 = 68.71% Backs : 38/126 = 30.15%
LIM Monthly Scores:
February: + 1.3496 points
March : + 1.5866 points
UK RACING LOCKDOWN
April : – 0.1733 points
May : – 0.8359 points
UK RACING RESTARTED
June : + 0.0428 points
July : + 0.8046 points
August : +1.9726 points (+4.747 points)
September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)
October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)
November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)
December : +0.8487 points (+13.2195 points)
January LIM Score:
1st: +0.098 (+0.098) Lay @ 2.75
2nd: +0.049 (+0.147) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 7.0
3rd: +0.098 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.3
4th: +0.147 (+0.392) Lay @ 2.6
5th: NO BET
6th: +0.098 (+0.49) Lay @ 3.7 (averaged)
7th: RACING ABANDONED
8th: NO BET
9th: +0.588 (+1.078) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 11.0
10th: +0.098 (+1.176) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 5.0
11th: +0.1176 (+1.2936) Lay @ 2.9
12th: -0.218 (+1.0756) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 61.0
13th: -0.131 (+0.9446) Lay @ 1.81 : Back @ 8.0
14th: -0.1 (+0.8446) Back @ 3.1
15th: -0.075 (+0.7696) Lays @ 2.0 & 3.8 : Back @ 18.0
16th: -0.068 (+0.7016) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 4.0
17th: NO BET
18th: -0.1 (+0.6016) Back @ 2.8
19th: RACING ABANDONED
20th: -0.15 (+0.4516) Lay @ 4.0
LIM suspended for the rest of January 2021 to be replaced on a daily basis by the BOZnap.