BOZmail – 21st JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY JANUARY 21st 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-20 SEDGEFIELD

Sunday’s play was spoiled by the withdrawal of Rievers Lad so drawing a line under that. No great damage done. Move on.

King Vince and Quick Brew can’t be ruled out in this Handicap Chase at Sedgefield but it could well come down to a tussle between the top two Briac and Beallandendall both of whom have to come back from a fall in their last chase. Briac is very short for what is ostensibly a chase debut with the proof that the game suits yet to appear. Was impressive winning over hurdles LTO but over further and at a very different sort of track in Ffos Las and I wouldn’t want to be backing at evens coming back in distance for a horse bred for stamina. Previous wins over hurdles and on the flat have all had stamina written in them and Sedgefield is a quick track far from assured to suit. Gets weight from the other three is the only thing I think that comes in Briac’s favour. That and a stable in form.

I prefer the booking of Richard Johnson for the second fav as a value possible at the prices and with the cover that King Vince and Quick Brew also provide, I’m happy to take the favourite on at evens or thereabouts.

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on BRIAC

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 36/45 = 80% : BACKS: 7/27 = 25.92%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.8 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

 

RIP Willoughby Court – sad news indeed.

 

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Sunday night at Midnight:

 

1st Quarter: SERENA WILLIAMS @ 6/5

2nd Quarter: MADISON KEYS @ 5/1 (6.6 on the exchanges)     

3rd Quarter: MARIA SHARAPOVA @ 3/1  saver: AMANDA ANISIMOVA @ 11/2

4th Quarter: SLOANE STEPHENS @ 5/2   saver: DANIELLE COLLINS @ 10/1

4 x 0.25pt singles with a 0.1pt single on each named saver. 4 x 0.05pt trebles on the four main selections and a 0.05pt four timer for a total spend of 1.45 points.

 

I wrote that this could be a slam of two halves with the shocks coming in the second half and that proved better prediction than the above I’m afraid where I called only one of the four correctly in last night’s fourth round matches. Both Sharapova and Stephens were disappointing failures from winning positions with Stephens’ defeat a serious shock on paper really. She lapsed into laissez faire mode against an only ordinary Pavlyuchenkova. Not good from the American number one. Her young compatriot number four ranked Collins however saved my night playing continued electric tennis to utterly demolish a bewildered Kerber and those who followed my point towards the tempting 350/1 on Collins in the outrights might start getting excited now as she can be fancied against Pavlyuchenkova in her maiden slam QF if she keeps up that form.

My bet is creaking with the multiple elements down and 3rd quarter a write off. I did underestimate Barty I’m afraid. Her improved form blossomed in front of home crowd support against Sharapova who did the steely bit late on but had serious return to service problems second and third set. The Australian outplayed her and also survived the mental barrage late on. Would still have her second fav v Kvitova however but that lay on Barty if you followed it also looking a bit creaky now.

Not panicking yet. There is still profit to be made if Keys and Collins come through. Stay tough through another night of watching tonight and regroup on Monday for quarter finals if things continue not going to plan. Hoping that I really didn’t peak too early with that 13/16 in the last 32!  

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again

on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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