BOZmail – 21st FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 21st  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.464 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.2041 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Friday play

4-10 WARWICK

This is the chosen race for Friday but there is an inspection booked for 8am tomorrow so if it isn’t going ahead, I’ll post again Friday morning with a revised play. The race read is further complicated by Midnight Tune’s entry at Exeter as well so I’ve worked on a play for if she is running and also if she’s not.

My lay in the race is Venetia Williams’ Top and Drop who will be ok at the distance but not wild about the ground and is still 14lb higher than last able to win at and a serious plug of a horse who will gallop on but doesn’t possess much in the way of speed especially not in this ground. Opposable although not to big money.

It isn’t a race I’m mad about whether Midnight Tune runs or not but she could win right enough if turning out. As could Molly Childers and No No Juliet but my small value play in the race lands on Henderson’s With Discretion who was promising enough as a hurdler to go to the Punchestown festival last year to take on Benie Des Diuex after good wins in two mare’s novice hurdles – one of those in heavy ground. Hasn’t quite got the hang of chase fences yet and threw a lot of ground away LTO hanging right behind Annie Mc. That form franked however and if they’ve worked on her jumping – and no better man than De Boinville for that – much better could be forthcoming. Small play chance.

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on TOP AND DROP (around 3.5 but much less in the absence of Midnight Tune)

0.1pt BACK on WITH DISCRETION

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 10/16 = 62.5%  Backs: 2/8 = 25%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

19th:   +0.147 (+0.804) Lay @ 1.44 

20th:   -0.34 (+0.464) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 4.4

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11 & 12) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

1-25 WARWICK – LIEUTENANT ROCCO – 0.2pt BACK

Created a huge impression at Chepstow LTO and this is his Cheltenham Prep and look see race. He does have a couple of good ones to master including Stick with Bill who has more experience and won well in handicap company LTO at Sandown in the Ambion Hill race. So Tizzard will have a line. Brummie Boys also a danger and not wild about backing Rocco at too short a price. Might be as short as 11/8 according to early tissue. Might half my stake at that because he’s got to prove himself up in class here.

So not a trade race either unless he should drift to 3/1 or so. I’ll probably play small back only if he’s a short price fav. Better value might lie in his ante-post Cheltenham price (50/1) which will disappear if he runs well here. That might be the trade play.

Warwick of course also subject to inspection tomorrow as we know.

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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