BOZmail – 21st DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY DECEMBER 21st 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

12-20 SOUTHWELL

Growing up on UK Racecourses with Dad a bookmaker (and besotted with horses) and Grandparents who loved a superstitious punt (my Nan had endless talisman for her bingo nights and always punted horses with names that resonated) I gained a formative years education in several racing myths that I’ve carried with me all my life. Still collating evidence to disprove them. The big three are:

1/ Always back the first horse you see when you arrive at the racetrack.

My Dad’s favourite this one and he swore by it. Would never lay it on his boards. Scratched it from his lists and sent the punter down the line. When they insisted he took the bet, he instantly hedged it off. Reckoned he made a mint not laying these over the years but was never keen to show proof. I’ve collected stats and it is hokum but soon as I think I’ve got rid of, it comes up again and yar boos in my face.

2/ If a horse whinnies or snorts as it comes past you when you are paddock watching, listen to what it is saying. It will be to your benefit.

Horse whisperers go silent when I bring this one up and ask how I’m supposed to interpret the message. Unsurprisingly this myth has better stats than I’m achieving at the moment.

3/ If you see a horse or a dog (or a jockey!) take a dump just before a race, instantly go and bet it.

Despite there being some logic in this one (and believable laxative based conspiracy theories) I had started using this one in my stand up comedy act. Gets a laugh.

I wasn’t laughing today. Niven did it and now I don’t know if my form study was naff (actually I do know by the way that Kelka ran) or whether this superstition is also back in the betting armoury. When it rains it pours and it has certainly done that this week.

Ever since last Wednesday actually and twice now at Hexham. It does happen however and it won’t be the first test of my patience. I am where I am because I plod on through and refuse to knee jerk.

The fates do rub it in though sometimes and the fare for LIM is particularly sparse on Friday. I had hoped to oppose Lil Rockerfella again at Ascot but the price puts me off. And I still can’t pick a winner for love nor money. Thursday looked a surefire day and the market agreed (or was being swayed by me?). But it wasn’t.

Carry on sticking to the principles. All you can do and not as if we are losing just yet. Undoing some good work only. And the test is there for a purpose. You can only overcome it by perseverance.

Tough one Friday though and I’ve ended up on the All weather and am keeping stakes low. Jamie Osbourne not my favourite trainer and his horse not proven on a surface you do need to be proven at. Ridden to win when it did by a strong Martin Dwyer ride and Nicola Currie back on here. She’s 0/3 on the horse and despite the current form she is in, does look a possible negative jockey selection.

Not my strongest fancy however and keeping stakes low and looking forward to the Xmas break and the return of top class racing next Wednesday. The staggered acca will play on Boxing Day as Ruth Jefferson’s superstar and my favourite horse of recent years swings back into action in the King George. Participation confirmed today.

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on MANS NOT TROT

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 14.5/20 = 72.5% :   BACKS: 1/14 = 7.14%

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Waiting Patiently on the exchanges at 6.2 after King George entry confirmed today. I place my 0.1pt at that price now as the second leg of acca number two.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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