BOZmail 21st AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 21st  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.1972 points (+2.1972 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.655 points (-0.345 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.6464 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.9340 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 43/56 = 76.78%  Backs : 7/25 = 28%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE:

Thursday’s Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on LOVE (around 1.48 on Betfair as I write and anything under 1.6 would be the plan)

Laid @ 1.44 : hedged 0.125pt @ 1.54 : P/L = -0.0425pts

0.1pt BACK on MANUELA DE VEGA ( currently 17.0 on exchanges and with fixed odds bookies) 

Backed @ 17.0 : Hedged 0.125pt @ 12.0 : P/L = + 0.0245pts

Overall P/L on the LIM race = -0.018pts

The overnight rain happened but was nowhere near amount forecast nor anything like that experienced at Windsor (just 5.44mm in 24 hours) and then dried up much earlier Thursday morning than forecast with a strong breeze making for a drying ground but officially good to soft and that was enough to give us our hedging opportunity. Did you take it? I was of the opinion it wouldn’t be soft enough for Manuela de Vega and did a 100% hedge there but took 50% of my hedge on Love with such a small liability and the possibility still that it might get sticky as the afternoon wore on. The first two race favourites both came with winning runs but then got stuck in the ground and only finished second so I thought there was still scope to get Love beaten. Hey ho! The result you get is the result you get and usually the one you deserve! She might be my tip for the Arc next time I get involved with Love!

Back to the jumps!

7-55 NEWTON ABBOT

Big ask for Glengar in this despite getting lumps of weight. Is actually out of the handicap, well held by Bermeo on times and likely to be less well suited to the speedy nature of the track than some of the others. Does have Millie on board to negate the penalties imposed for her last two efforts but Sizing at Midnight would outclass if he returns fit and fancied whilst Cailin du Brizais would be the value of the race if recent form can be overlooked. Hasn’t won for three years but does like it here and is on a winnable mark again now.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on GLENGAR (around 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on CALIN DU BRIZAIS (around 9.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Yarmouth (Aug 25) & Lingfield (Aug 26)

Custard The Dragon

TO FOLLOW TRADES on THURSDAY at York:

1-45 – ON MY WAY @ 28/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 65.0 : Hedged 0.05pt @ 32.0 before the off & 0.3pt @ 10.0 in running: P/L = +0.245pts

2-15 – UNCLE JUMBO @ 9/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 11.3 : Hedged 0.125pt @ 8.2 : P/L = + 0.0245pts

Strategy worked well on On My Way as he showed up early again and I didn’t bother with it on Uncle Jumbo and greened before the off. Both were still decent returns had they won but neither really got close (Uncle Jumbo saw it out ok) and fair to say both sailing above the wind at the moment and go off the to follow now but both can be watched for the future when they descend to realistic levels. And both made us trade profits. Never any shame in that!

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered at Cartmel (Aug 23)

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 22)

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Southwell (Aug 24)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 22)

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach – Entered at Chepstow (Aug 23)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

 **********************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *