BOZmail – 21st APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY APRIL 21st 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-30 MARKET RASEN

The Good Easter continues with a spot on race read again Saturday (to put me on the cusp of my second straight ten lays of 2019) and but for the slight error at the 8th, I thought Opechee might have won. Got a great ride to finish just under 3 lengths behind the winner – who ran excellently again at his home track – to almost land my 38.0 voucher and confirmed that the stable, as suspected, have primed the string to return to form for the Easter crowds. Well done if you got some of the 44.0 which I just missed. You got outstanding value. Did he run like a 43/1 shot in a 4 runner race?? They also ran Endless Credit in the first at Carlisle and he ran a fine prep race finishing 4th with his return to form over hurdles. If they both turn out again here, we back both. The Boz smells a plot on and very interesting that apprentice Blakemore shifts to Endless Credit whilst Sheehan comes in for the ride on Opechee. Both are on their mark and have proved their well being. If that was a racecourse workout on Saturday and they turn out again on Sunday, both can be fancied. The stable is now running 100% to form for the past 1 day! Always a stat I like!

I have race read the rest of the race on the assumption that these two Egerton runners will not turn out and consider it a very tight call indeed between the top three in the betting for our lay. Did consider a possible triple lay if I can get all three at 2/1 or under as early tissues suggest might be a possibility as the market develops. Don’t discount that possibility if you have time to watch the markets. Safest lay at the current prices as I write is Larch Hill. Up 6lb for his debut chase win, he takes on more here and Holryale would appear a particular rival to beat from the Skelton yard who remain in highly competitive form and have the best in form running % outside the Egerton yard. Holryale has been disappointing since his wind op but continues back down in grade and over his correct distance again back off his last winning mark. Be no surprise at all to see Skelton bring this one home. Chozen only up 4lb for his LTO win but has to concede weight to all but I still fancy him more than Larch Hill based on the times he’s achieved in recent wins and could in fact have been coming here on a three timer if not suffering an unfortunate fall when in command on penultimate start. Larch Hill has the less convincing profile from a stable pretty under the weather. Dallas Cowboy the only one in the race I consider an unlikely winner.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on LARCH HILL (around 2.7 : no greater than 3.0)

0.1pt BACK on OPECHEE

0.1pt BACK on ENDLESS CREDIT

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 89/125 = 71.20% :   BACKS: 20/82 = 24.39%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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