BOZmail – 20th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 20th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-00 NEWTON ABBOT

Well, I was busy planning a right go on Friday after the shortlist system threw up some serious candidates for an acca and that remains the case but without really hoping for it, my Dad’s old 7 day winner system did us proud at Chelmsford and suddenly I find LIM in plus figures for the first time this seriously awkward month. Proud of myself for not wanting it too much (always helps!) and for sticking to guns as the frustration mounted and as ever, patience and self belief is rewarded and a chance now of not posting a minus month as had started to become increasingly likely! Never say die. And a second good pick of a market drifter this week so that perversely, LIM is scoring higher than average on backs this year whilst any troubles really have been caused by the usually stronger lays leg dropping below its usual percentage.

Mainly however, patience rewarded. Always the biggie in following a betting system.

And of course now I don’t want to play my big day at Newton Abbot so ambitiously! Much more inclined to consolidate the recovered position although gambling is a risk game so sometimes you gotta remember that fortune favours the brave and that you oughta strike while the iron’s hot.

So here’s the deal. I’m not going in as heavy on a creative staggered acca perm that the shortlist system has thrown up but that will be made available to all those that emailed in last week to say they wanted to carry on receiving that in the future. If you meant to do that but forgot you got til 10am Friday morning to email in now at garyboswell@hotmail.com for the full list and I’ll include you in that extra mailout. No extra charge.You’ll just go down as one of those I’m keeping on a list to send the new shortlist system details to when I get that up and running probably in the New Year.  

I am using two bits of it on here to have a small consolidating LIM bet and a perceived staggered acca banker to start off the 19th attempt at a staggered acca on the BLWM Service. Let’s see how we get on and take it from there. I will be continuing to use the shortlist system however to fuel the staggered acca pics in the short term future as they do seem to be in good fettle at the moment with a new selection factor criteria that came in when I was doing the trial last week and currently stands still at 100% correct over the jumps. 5/5 now. Very promising. And I’ll put the permed version that comes from that up on here too for very small stakes (see below).

Meanwhile the reliable old LIM. Fairly straightforward one. Shaman Du Berlais does appear on the shortlist but the new factor seriously points to the form of Ruthless Article who fields a 4lb rise in the weights for a good win LTO but has to concede 12lb and 19lb to the field which after Conkering Hero and the September improver factor doesn’t put me off as much as it normally might. What’s more new shortlist factor also fancies Footloose at a big price so we can safely afford to lay Shaman du Berlais small with his negatives of likely preferring shorter distance and softer ground as advertised in the form book without taking too much risk. Boz bank management however still calls for profit protection in LIM on Friday after the month we have endured and decidedly does not want us to risk us going back into the September red! Hence….    

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on SHAMAN DU BERLAIS (around 2.4 : no greater than 2.66)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

19th:    +1.595 (+0.4225) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 10.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 160/245 = 65.30% :   BACKS: 47/166 = 28.31%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

Last minute and since I wrote above, I have gone off my traditional first leg acca banker which was Caius Marcius in the 4-10 simply because his price has already crashed to 2/5 and I consider that too short now with Court Royale not out of it on hurdle times if handling the transition to chasing well and Aintree My Dream also not out of it at the weights on Stratford Handicap form. So CANCEL the traditional staggered acca starter and I post instead just a very small stakes permed acca using the new shortlist system factor which I’ll charge to the staggered acca bank and you can place without too much hassle at any fixed odds bookie site. Or you can play them as singles and/or trades if that is your preferred or required.

SHORTLIST SYSTEM NAPS PERMED FOUR TIMER (8 bet perm) to be staked at 0.01pt unit stakes at Newton Abbot on 20/9/19. Total Spend = 0.08 points

2-00 Ruthless Article(11/8) – Footloose(12/1)

2-30 Exxaro(8/1)

3-35 Sizing Tara(2/1) – Shanksforamillion(7/2)

4-45 Sinakar(3/1) – Gardiner’s Hill(12/1)              

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered at Hamilton (Sep 22)

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Silver Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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