BOZmail – 20th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY OCTOBER 20th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.436 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-50 KEMPTON

Another close finish going our way. This must be our purple patch! And victory for the creative triple lay! Hope you enjoyed that. Chance for October to shine now from here on in.

Not such a clear day Sunday unfortunately and I had been hoping to publish an enticing Sedgefield shortlist on Durham National day but I’ve found nothing there and a very trappy card so have instead been juggling with these two races at Kempton where the Listed hurdle at 4-25 looks a possible for my old mate and Supreme Novices hurdle third Itchy Feet. Murphy yard ran much better on Saturday with Skandiburg but taking on the Champion Hurdle third Silver Streak does look an ask to me. The times don’t support us. So instead I head to this ultra competitive Handicap Chase where Tom Lacey drops Snapdragon Fire straight into handicaps after just one novice where he didn’t jump well and the time was slow. Jockey booking is interesting and suggests a schooling round. If he is good enough, he could win as an improver but seriously pitched in here against some experienced sorts of whom Lillington would be my idea of a winner if he’d had a run. The lay off tempers me from a back and just a small bank consolidation play for Sunday after a rewarding past three days. 

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SNAPDRAGON FIRE (around 4.4 : No greater than 4.6)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 175/267 = 65.54% :   BACKS: 51/182 = 28.02%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.792 points. 

(THIRD LEG:)

3-00 FFOS LAS – 0.25pt LAY on ENNISTOWN @ around 2.5 – WON

(Backed 0.4pt LAY @ 2.0 & 0.01pt BACK @ 151.0) = +0.392

Ennistown opened up much shorter than expected (4/7 on the early tissue) so stakes were adjusted and I ended up with just a quid on Spock who gave us our bit of fun with the race going more or less to plan. You’ll have noted that the day’s two winners were the two 100% stable running to form horses. Good time of year for backing those.

So on to leg 4 for this staggered acca and 0.792 points to stake now. Will shout when next leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus – Entered at Plumpton (Oct 21)

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

4-00 ASCOT – DEIRDRE @ 15/2 – 0.5pt BACK – 3rd

(Backed @ 11.5 : Hedged back @ 6.2) : P/L = 0

Decided to honour my God and traded once I got on at 11.5! Couldn’t help myself! Excellent run on ground that was looser and probably quicker than she’d have liked. Genuine heavy might have stopped Magical (but maybe not Addeybb) and she stayed on to reward those who went each way. Good way to end the 2019 turf flat campaign on the BOZmail. Good Saturday for us too.

All eyes now on the much more important jumps!!

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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