BOZmail 20th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

TUESDAY OCTOBER 20th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +36.3414 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.2018 points (+7.2018 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 38.3251 points (+30.3251 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 93/129 = 72.09%  Backs : 25/78 = 32.05%

2-50 EXETER

Classic LIM day again with Harry Cobden to thank for the success. Great ride. Enrichissant actually makes to follow list for that alongside Wenceslaus last week. Bridgewater stable is one of my stables (Zamani also ran well next race and also makes list) and all three have done the trainer proud on their return from lay off without winning and carrying penalty. All absolutely assured of winning again sometime soon and when stable is back firing. Had to take a bigger lay price than I like but I did warn you about getting in early. Only other way to get a layable price was in running but that’s always risky. I’ll take a point over the odds pre race rather than risk it to the last furlong by which time there’s usually one out there that can beat it if its in the lead.

Twisty fell off Masons Jar which is a bit of a worry as his Flying Verse is my idea of the one to take Sizing at Midnight on with at Exeter on Tuesday. Times at Newton Abbot behind Soldier of Love would be good enough to win this but STD and his jumping is always a question mark and when there’s others in the race at better value, that’s my dictate still. And there is here. Kitty’s Light showed a tremendous attitude when defying penalty and LIM LTO and has like SAM got to carry another penalty here. Both are vulnerable but of the two, Kittys is the value. Then there’s Commodore Barry who became a frustrating to follow horse last year but who I’m still like. He won on soft so not ideal for him here. His job will be to challenge for the lead early and get SAM wasting energy in the fight for front spot. That should set the race up for the closer which Kittys Light proved to be brilliantly LTO. Flying Verse wins if Sammy gets him jumping but even better value is Portway Flyer who is long in the tooth now but still lightly raced (just 19 rules races to his name) and would munch them on 2016 form and likes the track and can beat them on his 2019 time here as well achieved after a 1266 day break! Like Commodore Barry, has had his cobweb blowing run this season and represents the value in another classic LIM race that provides us with ample cover.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on SIZING AT MIDNIGHT (around 2.5)

0.1pt BACK on PORTWAY FLYER (around 11.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24) & Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat – Entered @ Cheltenham(Oct 23)

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie      

Soldier of Love – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy) – Entered @ Hereford (Oct 21)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Hereford (Oct 21)

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

NH TO FOLLOW horse on Monday at Plumpton:

2-10 Pisgah Pike @ 11/10 – 0.15pt BACK -1st

Backed @ 1.9 : P/L = +0.1323pts

And straight back he was and loyalty rewarded. Ran a cracker and is a must to try again for Black Type of which he was cruelly denied. Stays on the list.

Afraid it was one of my sloppy ones and I missed the 11/10 on offer with the fixed odds guys when I wrote and nearly missed the 1.9 on the exchange on which I also had to pay commission. So not my finest hour optimum betting time wise and well done if you did better. And bad luck if you traded it but good practice for you to get used to winning less than you could have (same as me!). As either gambler or trader, it is not really about how much you could have won. Only ever about how much you did. The World According to BOZ.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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