BOZmail – 20th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 20th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.3557 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.418 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-10 WARWICK

Hands up if you traded the Tuesday play in running. You’re learning the Bozway if you did. The Cryogenics tip was obviously hunch time – that inexplicable something that the more you look at it and try to dissuade yourself, the stronger the feeling gets.

Then I stumbled on the Timeform stat for Kenny Johnson that he is +28 points over five years when only sending one horse to the races. Then they started shrinking the price just before the off (although I suppose that might have been you guys. Not sure how many market movers are reading me these days) so I went in expecting a possible big run and the trader in me started bristling. Skeaping out the back being held up for a sprint finish but The Boz pretty sure he wouldn’t quicken over the last furlong. Todd a solid stamina option who was odds on last night but went 3.5 in the morning whilst Skeaping hit a stunning 1.89 when I’d been expecting 2.7ish.

Because of Champagne Court yesterday, I went in less bullish than I might have but I basically decided to gamble on Cryogenics and do a lumpy in running trade if Alison Clarke got a tune out of him. Which she did. Cantering in 2nd 4 furlongs out and traded at 2.1. I took some of the 36.0 in the pre race and backed again at 28.0 in the lead up. So that was good! Remained confident throughout that LIM had things covered so had a great time shouting Alison round the second last bend whilst she still had a shout. A few nervous moments on the run up in case Todd wilted but as well as hedging Cryogenics to 0.5pts, I’d backed a bit back on Skeaping at 7.6 in running having laid at 1.89. So I was green over the last but hugely slanted to a Todd win (which I never hedged back after backing small at 3.5) although part of me of course was praying for the front two both to fall over the last! Mean of me I know but I was still monster profit on Cryogenics who maintained 3rd easily.

And that folks is how you bet these days I reckon. Of course my profit plus isn’t massively more than that being posted on here where no in running trading is taken into account but that little four runner seller at Fakenham was as much a trader’s paradise as the Ostapenko – Martic tennis match was in the summer. Those of you who were around to remember that. Just that confidence in the position taken type of thing and then backwards and forwards on the in running nuances, backing when it favours and hedging when the price contracts and vice versa on the fav you’re pretty sure is false. Of course I was expecting Skeaping to be second fav. Bonus to wake up and find it backed in to fav and then some!  

If you showed a trading profit over 0.7pts from the starting stakes I advertised, you are getting a better trader than the Boz! If you just gambled, well you’re a winner too! Good ole LIM.

And on to Wednesday and the rest of November. Can’t promise the same excitement of the past four days but keen to keep the positive vibe going!

Another of the veteran’s chases where all things are possible and I wouldn’t want to ever dictate the winner of one of these. But I’ve read the form and rate Kings Odyssey ideally wanting shorter whilst Milansbar would rather it were further and Theatre Guide comes somewhere in between. Back the value is the ticket and Milansbar is that having won round here before for Bryony under that positive front running ride. Needs to bounce back on recent form from LTO but has had a break and done well coming in fresh before so whilst not one to go daft over with the stable not particularly firing at the minute, worth a tickle. The stiff fences at Warwick ought to bring stamina into play.

My lay would be on Kings Odyssey who has to prove he can do the trip and you saw the value of opposing the unproven stayer with Skeaping yesterday. Kings Odyssey on the cusp of being too old to show much improvement needed to handle the distance which breeding would advise against so again not a mega lay but the value oppose up against the stayer that is Theatre Guide.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on KINGS ODYSSEY (around 3.0 : no greater than 3.3)

0.075pt BACK on MILANSBAR

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 197/296 = 66.55% :   BACKS: 53/197 = 26.90%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

13th:  +0.596 +(1.5565) Lay @ 2.48 : Back @ 5.0

14th:  +0.147 (+1.7035) Lay @ 3.0

15th:   +0.095 (+1.7985) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 14.5

16th:   +0.245 (+2.0435) Lay @ 2.6

17th:   +0.143 (+2.1865) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 3.0

18th:    -0.332 (+1.8545) Lay @ 1.52 : Backs @6.0 & 26.0

19th:    +0.22 (+2.0745) Lay @ 1.89 : Back @ 36.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC – Entered at Ffos Las (Nov 22)

Kaizer – Entered on the flat at Newcastle (Nov 21)

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh 

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier-Entered for Wincanton(Nov 21)&FfosLas (Nov 22)

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

Up The Straight

Flaming Charmer

Jatiluwih

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HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE at CHEPSTOW on WEDNESDAY:

3-20 NORMANDY SOLDIER – 0.1pt BACK @ around 21.0

Probably just an each way shout but one of the dark horse improvers on the list and if showing large movement forward formwise, not without a shout. Usual advice – back at the best price you can and hedge when preferential odds are offered.

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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