BOZmail 20th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 20th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 110/152 = 72.36%  Backs : 30/96 = 31.25%

1-48 CATTERICK

Another one wrong. Busy giving back Sunday’s gains here! Time to take a breather and a rain check and call on the bank management skills. Add to that a tough Friday selection that has had me scratching my head which Henderson JP McManus horse to take on. Looked long and hard at Chantry House in the first at Ascot and on paper and my times, Nicholls’ Pic D’orhy has a strong chance with Chase experience also on his side. Trouble is, he jumped like a hurdler in that race and although the form has been upheld a bit by Le Patriote who did ok behind Eldorado Allen, he will have to have improved his jumping a large amount to keep in front of the imminently classy Chantry House who has the lay off to overcome but was third in the Supreme Novices behind Shishkin. You can’t get much classier than that. He’ll likely benefit from the extended distance more as well. Pic D’Orhy should do better on this softer ground but on balance I pass that race over to try and take on the even shorter priced Birchdale at Catterick. That he gets sent North for a much easier race is telling because he was very underwhelming on his Chase debut at Ascot last season despite an equally impressive hurdle campaign and looking every bit a chaser. 1/6 here and only really has Snookered to beat but the real challenge is will he beat himself again? Had to be bumped along on debut giving all the signs that he just wasn’t keen. Beaten 32 lengths. Hardly an impressive debut.

In both races, it will come down to jumping and so I simply plump for the lesser risk odds wise with no wish to keep smashing into Sunday’s hard earned winnings. These are both races very hard to read in advance and no arguing with anyone choosing to sit both of them out! Bank management is about that at times. Simply not having a bet! Ascot is a difficult card throughout and Shortlisters be notified that I’m not publishing there on Friday after all for similar reasons to above. So much guesswork involved.

And so I simply take on the price on Birchdale to see if Snookered – who was a long way behind Return Ticket on his Chase debut and likewise behind Protektorat LTO but both of those have proved decent sorts – can’t up his game against a reluctant sort.He does at least know the course! No fortunes risked however. That kind of day.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on BIRCHDALE (around 1.2 and no greater than 1.36)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River 

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28)

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +48.5066points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.1548 points (+11.1548 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 47.1123 points (+39.1123 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3885 points (-0.6115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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