BOZmail – 20th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY MAY 20th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-55 LUDLOW

The sort of bet Sunday that makes me look a putz when it goes wrong and a smart suited sort of fella when it goes right but in actual fact is just the very foundation of the LIM philosophy as a betting approach. Look for the vulnerable fav and then sort out the value pick to beat it. The smaller the field races preferred because they cut down the studying time required to get to the play of the day. It does work in larger field races too though if you’ve got the time to implement it.

And I cannot stress enough how this month’s recovery after such a poor start has been a challenge. A challenge again that has been overcome by refusing to panic and looking for a seem of success. Not so much my usual one of consistent laying though. I’ve backed my way out into plus this time and done so largely on the seem of jockey rather than horse.LIM is always multi layered.

And no jockey at the moment higher in my estimation than Bryony Frost.If you watched you saw her struggling with reins and irons down the back at a crucial point but still able to retain balance and power and urge the horse to the speed to exert his weight allowance advantage that broke the back of the fav. Tremendous race riding. She is gonna get a shed load of Xmas cards from The Boz this year the way she’s going. 17/1 in a three runner race. Did she ever look like a 17/1 shot? I did my bit ensuring BOZmail rule number 4 was also in place. Hope you did ok too. There was a run on the price early Sunday although it drifted back out again near the off.

So what now for May? Well not going gung ho that’s for sure. Consolidation of the plus and a serious attempt at the next leg of the staggered acca methinks. Was already thinking that way for Monday before Bryony did her stuff. I’m working on a staggered acca play on the flat at Leicester and you’ll see details of that below if I’m going for it. Staying over jumps for LIM and a race I’m also keen on but will play at similar stakes to the recovery levels simply because I have no intention of risking posting a minus LIM for May having worked so hard to get it out.

Of the two penalised favs at the head of the market, I’m clearly with Alltimegold and against Lerichi Belle which is borne out on times and Lerichi Belle’s being the lesser success LTO at Worcester where form, like at Southwell, often doesn’t carry well. Both won easy LTO but both could get done again, as on Sunday, by a third player – Johnny Yuma from the stable of in form Katy Price (I’d change my name if I were lumbered with that!). Johnny Yuma will do better than LTO against Lerichi Belle on an 18lb weight turnaround (for 16 lengths) and the fact that preferred quicker ground is more likely as weather forecast for Ludlow area is largely dry for Monday. Lerichi Belle would clearly need juice to perform at optimum so is a confident lay.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on LERICHI BELLE (around 3.0 ; no greater than 3.6)

0.1pt BACK on JOHNNY YUMA

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0                     

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 103/150 = 68.66% :   BACKS: 26/97 = 26.80%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Epsom (May 31) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 11.3966 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 4)

7-15 LEICESTER – LAY on CASEMENT

Early tissue is suggesting even money on the Appleby horse and I’m keen to lay at that price. All my 1.3966 points of bookmakers money. If it drifts out, I’d be more wary. Just a false fav to me from a stable not overly firing and over a longer distance not guaranteed to suit based on recent efforts. I always like the Hayler Turner/Michael Bell teaming up angle and Hayley is my Bryony Frost on the flat. Good pair of hands and sits well on a horse. Her experience a valuable plus these days and Geetanjali would look to me to have the better form and times at the distance. I’m also happy to have Nicholls’ Meagher’s Flag on my side as that looks the one to me most likely to be in love with the distance.

I’m getting the lay on at even money or thereabouts and if it should prove difficult, I will abort. Am setting my upper parameter at 2.2. Also worth saying that this isn’t a play I’d be considering if we were on leg one. I’d wait for a more weapons grade one. Good enough however to take a punt with bookmakers money. Welcome to the thrill of the staggered acca!!

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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