BOZmail – 20th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 20th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-40 MARKET RASEN

I’ve doffed my cap to the genius that is Noel Fehily many times in my career and sent him a Xmas card a few times too! Hands up those who thought Dyliev had defied us. That would be me amongst but Noel worked his superstrong magic once more and boy is he gonna be missed in the weighing room by punters who like a bit of class on their fancy’s back. Fehily takes that with him intact into a well deserved retirement. Great talker of sense and look forward to listening to his punditry in the months and years ahead.

Wednesday’s play has been hard to sort as on the surface there looked several races to choose from and I was contemplating starting a lay staggered acca with the form I’m in if I could find a weapons grade pick. The race reads however almost left me with no pick at all although I have finally settled on this Handicap Chase at Market Rasen after initially expecting old boy Brave Spartacus to be an opposable fav (13 year olds not known for winning two in a row) only to find the tissue going for the maiden bottom weight Picknick Park whose spelling reminds me of the old political teddy bear gag. The teddy bears nominate three candidates for their new prime minister – Harold the Teddy Bear, Tony the Teddy Bear and Nick. Which one do the teddy bears go for? Well, the teddy bears pick Nick of course!

Easy to see now why my career in comedy didn’t go very far.

And a maiden bottom weight favourite for a handicap chase? Up in class and penalised three pound (which is how he got into this handicap) for not winning last time out. And current form and that large weight difference being presumably why he’s up as fav. Stable not among winners and I distrust such things normally as a hint of odds compilers knowing something I don’t. Maybe. Maybe not.

On paper, and the reason I’ve finally landed with it as the day’s small play, is that the winner ought to come from the three old stalwarts that has been the core of our successes recently. I did consider the play of backing all three but in view of the slight doubt attached to the fav, I’ve decided instead to go for just one of the old guys and minimise scale of loss if fav should win. Uno Valoroso has a chance off the mark but hasn’t won in an age and stable form and jockey booking put me off him. Michael Scudamore stable also out of kilter and Zayfire Arimis still a bit high markwise which brings me back to old stalwart Brave Spartacus to defy the back to back 13 year old wins. Always been consistent, stable has been in the winners and at his peak would have easily munched Picknick Park.On a workable mark despite LTO. Saw him in the flesh not that long ago winning at my local Cartmel track and he has indeed been a true warrior with 11 wins and 14 places from his 61 runs under rules. Worthy of our modest support.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on PICKNICK PARK (around 3.3:not greater than 4.0)

0.1pt BACK on BRAVE SPARTACUS

************************************************************************

This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 67/95 = 70.52% :   BACKS: 16/61 = 26.22%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

No new additions/deletions.

*******************************************************

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *