BOZmail – 20th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY MARCH 20th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

IRISH RACING

2-00 DUNDALK

I have had a good look at this one and think we can take on Flower Garland – likely fav or joint fav – who is quite well treated weight wise but looks outclassed by Aerclub and is very closely matched on times with Line Judge who might be my value in the race if his price should drift in the brotherly love stakes. Joseph has a line to work on and should know where he stands and he is also favoured by the weights.

I remain in Crisis corner for a while though stake wise and a few have asked me whether they should be bothering with this fill in fare at all if being serious about the investment potential of LIM was why they signed up to The BOZmail. I see both sides.

There is value in keeping things going during the suspension we are currently facing from a keeping things oiled,taking chance to practice and avoiding the urge to take a holiday overseas that we can’t do anyways point of view. Keep working. LIM is structured to provide a bet every day for a reason. A reason to do with discipline and rhythm. Both of which play their part in successful gambling. Not doing too much. But not doing too little either. 

But also my back knowledge of Irish racing is like that of US racing. My instincts aren’t likewise lifetime tuned. Only been following Irish racing past five years or so and only sporadically at that. Actually do more with US racing betting wise but both are less confident tipping areas hence the staking down. I’m with those who consider LIM as investment potential activity and take the UK stuff very seriously and stake likewise. In general I will be doing this crisis corner stuff for the enjoyment of it and for the reasons mentioned above but leave the decision whether you partake or stand this suspension period out entirely up to you.

Only thing I’m clear on in the advising stakes is that one about staking down and doing 10% of serious stakes if you do play. I’m actually going to record crisis corner in pounds sterling rather than points just to reinforce that and remind members of that advice. We learn but we don’t lose is the motto. You get chance to practice price optimisation as much as anything if you do play. That is one of many reasons why I’m doing it instead of taking time out to spend six weeks in the Bahamas which they won’t let me do anyway. Went to a supermarket in Morecambe today and saw my first experience of civil disobedience since the Handsworth riots in 1980. Took me back.

Reminded me how much of an old fuddy duddy I’ve become inbetween times! 

Recommendation:

£3 LAY on FLOWER GARLAND ( around 3.0 or less if offered)

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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