BOZmail -20th JUNE

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY JUNE 20th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

Second Round Match at Edgbaston

Ostapenko did cakewalk it so no trade for me. Was pretty confident I’d got it right when I saw the first three games. The Latvian can be devastating at her best. When ground shots and  serve are both working. Osaka better watch out! She has never faced an in form Ostapenko on grass. There were some slight wobbles for the Latvian second set but that just her recent form doubts. That was her first top twenty win of the year. I should think she’ll move on now.

So the lay on Osaka in the outrights is still on and due to the weather I can revisit the second round match up v Putinseva which is not as strong as Wednesday’s but is one I still quite fancy. Putintseva is an angry ant type player who does monumental ground coverage during a match. She won’t handle Osaka’s thunderbolts but as we saw v Sakkari, she struggles to keep them coming on grass and often goes through flat spells. Just don’t think she likes the feel on her feet. Same on clay. Osaka was born to play hard court!

That said the speed and bounce of the ball suits her style of hitting so it will be down to Putintseva to disrupt that. I think she’ll give it a decent shot. Possible trade game again at the prices but as with yesterday, if Putintseva takes charge, sit tight. Just a low liability play for me to see if I can’t get the nap a day going into day four.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on NAOMI OSAKA v Putintseva (around 1.33)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 112/168 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 29/109 = 26.60%

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Australian Open = +0.283

French Open      = +2.74

Nottingham P/L = Break even

Edgbaston P/L   = +5.4083

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

EDGBASTON REPORT:

I’ve settled Sabalenka and Yastremska as losers already in my above tournament score and hedged Rodina and Qiang in play so they are now free bets. The Qiang price was a silly price that couldn’t be refused! Posted by a Chinese gambler no doubt! They often bet with their hearts! I don’t expect either the Russian or the Chinese player to overhaul Barty but I’ll enjoy it if they do! The Aussie was in formidable form in her opener and looks nailed on to secure the bottom half of the draw. I haven’t managed a lay on Osaka in the outrights yet and may leave that now with taking her on in the match bet second round. Also considered including Ostapenko as an outright back after her return to form today but may also save that to a match bet against Osaka if that comes to pass in the semis. Would fancy Ostapenko on grass and may also be keen on her in the final v Barty if she gets there. That’s getting ahead of ourselves however. For now, looking to have two running in the outrights in the QF if Qiang can beat Venus (possible) and leaving Goerges unhedged for now as I’d think the market has it right making her fav over Rodina. Will be shouting for the Russian however as she is a real wildcard on grass!  

My three remaining for the outrights are as follows:

Goerges – 22/1 : Current plus = + 2.2 points or -0.1point loss

Qiang Wang – 50/1 – hedged in play at 11/1 : Current plus = + 3.9 points

Rodina – 89/1 – hedged in play at 54/1 : Current plus = +3.5points

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman

Pour Me A Drink

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered for Goodwood (June 21)

DAY THREE TRADES AT ROYAL ASCOT:

3-05 EIGHTSOME REEL @ 25/1 – 0.1pt BACK to LAY

        ROSEMAN @ 10/1 – 0.1pt BACK TO LAY

4-20 DEE EX BEE @ 6/1 – 0.1pt BACK

I didn’t play Wednesday but BOZmail rule number 6 got me anyway with Dashing Willoughby winning it! Old hands will know he was on my to follow all last year.

Thought he wouldn’t be suited to the distance. Wrong! So might have missed my Royal Ascot winner but sticking to the plan of considering Dee Ex Bee my nap of the week! Will try and trade the other two. Roseman on the Raise You formline is interesting! Hanging out for a simple win on Dee Ex Bee. Am inclined to listen when Mark Johnston says he has the next Double Trigger. We shall see!  

All in all though, concentrating on the tennis. Watching Ascot in my spare time!

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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