BOZmail – 20th JUNE

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail@Royal Ascot: Day Five

SATURDAY JUNE 20th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.6625 points (-1.3375 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.778 points (+4.778 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.446 points (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +2.9715 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 3/9 = 33.33%  Backs : 0/5 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

NO BET ON FINAL DAY OF ROYAL ASCOT

Back to just a trade on a to follow horse for final day of Royal Ascot following that farce of a Friday. The LIM race again was a basic no contest with two of the runners not starting and the market flagging up that the only horse race fit was Tulip Fields. Making pre race tipping at the moment like dipping your toe in shark infested waters.

I feel like that it has been like that all month and until the lockdown factor is finally banished and we settle to form that can be relied on, LIM is best shut down. For at least another week or two. We are already much further into bank than I am happy with (although still ahead on the year with it of course) and I want to see that these sort of races are no longer occurring before we play again. 

Not that I didn’t get it wrong about Tulip Fields as well mind because I did. He stayed out the race much better than I expected and handled the dead ground. Connections and market told us he would so that the way to play the race was to trade again as he went 2.25 in running when looking like the class horse might just stay ahead of him. Before that horse then showed his lack of fitness that is. And such an uncompetitive nature to the races at the moment. When on paper they do look quite competitive. Only people really knowing who is going to win are the connections I’d say. It was a similar story at Ascot where the shortlist system had a skewed day because of the dead ground. Can always happen that of course with British weather but with that and the lockdown factor, I’m now sure those of you who voted we stay out til July were the ones who got it right.

Trading apart of course. I’m still happy to being doing that on Saturday. See below.

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3375) Lay @ 1.45

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Run Wild – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Virgin Snow

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 18)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE ON SATURDAY:

2-25 ASCOT – RUN WILD @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge when offered preferential odds either before the off or at your discretion in running.

This is an uber competitive event and Frankie defects to Alpine Star so waters are muddied. Can’t in any way predict a win despite the impressive performance in the Pretty Polly from the front and the likelihood that will enjoy the ground so long as the spectre of dead ground doesn’t again loom. What does look assured is a front running performance and I trust Gosden’s bringing back in distance for this whereas stamina does look the call. 

We are trading not gambling here however. Take whatever premium you can get and be content with it. I may be quite happy with a free bet in running I think to end a decent week’s trading in an otherwise typically mega tricky Royal Ascot experience. 

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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