BOZmail – 20th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY JULY 20th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-55 CARTMEL
Decor Irlandais has the benefit of course and distance form – both of which count for a lot here – and might carry the penalty for a decisive LTO win at the main expense of Jonjo O’Neill’s Stony Stream who tries the distance for the first time which is sensible on breeding. The horse has a tendency to idle however and that won’t assist round here. The rain that has fallen Friday and overnight also favours the Irish runner. We have decent LIM cover in Fortified Bay who is on a formline with an opponent of our second leg staggered acca runner at Market Rasen so keep an eye on that. To me, Fortified Bay looks to prefer quicker ground so the rain won’t really have helped his winning chance.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on STONY STREAM (around 3.25 : no greater than 3.6)

0.15pt BACK on DECOR IRLANDAIS

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

19th:  NON RUNNER

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 129/191 = 67.53% :   BACKS: 39/129 = 30.23%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

Ennistown-Entered at Newton Abbot(Jul 21)&Southwell(Jul 23

Francky Du Berlais – Entered at Cartmel (Jul 22)

Kaizer – Entered at Musselburgh (Jul 23)

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

3-20 Market Rasen – GET OUT THE GATE @ 25/1

My colleague and friend Nick Hardman – whose trends analyses I follow – gives this just a 5 out of 10 ticks for what is a hot race so we shouldn’t be lumping on here. My greater concern would be the way he dropped out LTO at Cartmel and the continuing malaise in stable form after a sparkling first three runs over fences. Still learning and being chucked in the deep end somewhat so this is a watch and see really but he remained on my to follow list after the Cartmel run for a reason. I do rate his long term chasing potential and I will be playing and trading modestly in this whilst watching attentively in my continuing quest to get to know the horse and his quirks.

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.49 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 2)

4-30 FRANCKY DU BERLAIS – 0.49pt BACK @ 7/2

Been waiting for him to come out again after Ennistown franked the Cartmel fast time form NTO. Ennistown himself goes in a fascinator at Newton Abbot on Sunday which you are sure to find on this sheet and maybe a third leg of the acca if this one rows in. I’ve done all my sweeps through on paper form and this passes. I’ll be at paddock watch as well as this is my bet of the day. There are dangers and as a Novices Handicap Chase, it comes with some jumping risks. The Boz however considers it grade A so that with luck and the wind in our sails, it makes a fine free bet selection at the reasonably value price. Now all we need is the 2019 staggered acca jinx to abate!

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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