BOZmail 20th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


MONDAY JULY 20th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.4638 points (+0.4638 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.0733 points (+6.0733 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.4531 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.7407 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 24/32 = 75%  Backs : 2/12 = 16.66%

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LESS IS MORE: 

3-10 MARKET RASEN

Sunday’s Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on FANZIO (around 2.7 or lower. Take the best price you can get)

0.1pt BACK on DOUBLE Ws (around 9.0 or better if you can get it.)

Trade play: Laid Fanzio @ 2.8 : Hedged 0.08pt @ 6.6 : P/L = +0.1176 

                      Back Double Ws @ 8.6 : Hedged 0.12pts @ 6.6 : P/L = +0.0196

Total Trade P/L = +0.1372pts   (+0.1617pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L =  +0.098 (+0.245pts)

1-1 after a decisive victory to the traders! But non traders well up on the two day score!! I played with the non traders but after seeing how unfit Double Ws was, I was wishing I’d gone trade! The drift on Fanzio was seismic. What were William Hill oddsmakers thinking opening him at evens??

You’d think I’d be chipper after both traders and non traders made on the race but in actual fact it was an indication of lockdown factor again after a helter skelter market settled just before the off into knowing exactly what the result would be with those not fit enough to race strung out like washing all over Nottinghamshire. Double Ws was sadly at the back. Picking winners remains desperately tough unless you work in the stable. At least identifying lays is getting easier and there is always trading to sustain us (two to follow trades scheduled for a busy Monday). Well done if you traded the LIM yesterday. It wasn’t an easy play to time but a rewarding one with the Fanzio price dropping off the scale for a while rather as I thought it might if the horse wasn’t ready. He actually may well have been ready but didn’t jump great and quite why he opened even money remains a mystery. 

The stables know the results at the moment. We are still in guesswork land.

So guessing at whether Ever So Much and BallyCrystal Court are going to be returning fit and ready to go and give Black Anthem a race here at Market Rasen Monday. Both could win if they are and Black Anthem is very short as the fit and ready one after his run at Southwell on the return from lockdown day. That was hurdles and I’m yet to be convinced he can win off his current Chase mark but has the champ in the saddle (injury permitting.Tweaked a back muscle and retired on Sunday). A lot of horses are actually bouncing (Black Anthem’s LTO conqueror – Tel Art lost a race he looked to have won on Sunday) from their first run however as we saw with Ginistrelli on Sunday and I just watched the actual champ

Brian Hughes ride a peach to deny a Newland cert at Southwell on the rank outsider.Utterly unpredictable stuff but I could see it going to happen in play and that’s where we are mainly at just now. Thus trading time for me again on Monday with the two To Follows plus this one. I take on Black Anthem to small money because of his price but I’ll be looking to hedge – especially if he drifts like Fanzio did!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on BLACK ANTHEM (around 2.2. Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (July 21) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Check My Pulse – Entered for Perth (July 21)

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (July 21)

Sangha River – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden

Lord Condi

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE on MONDAY:

12-00 Market Rasen -Sangha River @1/2 – 0.25pt BACK

12-35 Market Rasen – Aleatoric @ 9/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best prices that you can and hedge when appropriate as preferential odds are offered.

You could go lay to back on Sangha River if he goes silly price from here but I would expect him to win on form read despite the penalty after Captain Tom Cat boosted the form. That said, form is not the thing at the moment. The market is. Take your lead from that!!

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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