BOZmail 20th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.804 points

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.2041 points

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE: Thursday play

4-41 HUNTINGDON

Lucky or unlucky Wednesday? Unlucky I didn’t think to back my old neighbour who might have been coming to win anyways (well done if you did). Think I was mainly right about this Captain’s attitude. Doesn’t seem to want it. I love amateur jockeys and especially the artistic way they fall! 10/10 to David Maxwell for spectacular dismount!

Hope he’s ok. They make ‘em tough thankfully.

On to Thursday to see if we can keep the recovery run going and I’m pleased to see Wenceslaus out again and despite a 10lb penalty, he’s in such a groove he can be fancied again and has time advantage over Ibleo who was maybe a tad fortunate to win after a gigantic lay off LTO and gets a 6lb hike also. Wind opped and this is second time after and did gallop on at Wincanton end of January but not a fast time and a distinct possible of bounce after good return from that long lay off. So happy to take Ibleo on around 2.75 with Bet 365 on tissue but looks like you may well get him shorter than that on Thursday. Get best price you can.

Wenceslaus owes BOZmailers nothing already from last two wins so we stick loyally with him but cases possible for Fanzio and Little light also and my value bet is undoubtedly All is Good if he turns out again after yesterday at Ludlow. Might prefer good ground -and has a spanking time from Ludlow last year that could win this – but has won on soft at Hereford before with usual Jockey Jack Quinlan back in the plate. Possible yesterday was a cobweb blowing siter for this as with Just A Par. If he turns out again he should be backed.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on IBLEO (around 2.75 or preferably shorter. Use your discretion)

0.1pt BACK on WENCESLAUS (around 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on ALL IS GOOD ( as much as 25/1 on tissue with BET 365. General 16/1 – Get the best you can)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 10/15 = 66.66%  Backs: 2/7 = 28.57%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

19th:   +0.147 (+0.804) Lay @ 1.44 

*******************************************************

WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus*

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Warwick (Feb 21) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Exeter (Feb 21) & Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

**************************************************************************

ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *