BOZmail 20th DECEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY DECEMBER 20th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/177 = 70.05%  Backs : 35/111 = 31.53%

12-45 FAKENHAM

A peculiar version of Murphys Law when I say I’m trying to get us into Xmas week in good LIM shape for that to prove a wrong call. Not horrendously wrong as Catamaran Du Seuil ran the expected race. Just jumping that wasn’t quite as slick as needs be and the fav proving smarter in that department despite a market drift which I followed and laid anyways despite it going the other way to that I expected. I expected her to get nudged into second having been backed whereas she wasn’t much backed but nudged mine into second by jumping the better. Then to compound it, I did actually take us into Xmas week in sterling shape courtesy of two stellar trades one of which was with a new superhorse who is as exciting as Captain Fantastic (Zebo) called Cheddleton who really is a jumper to jump the rest into the ground. The other was a classic PROFIT AT THE DEATH trade play as described in my newly published TRADE PAPER users manual – which some of you have already signed up for next year and have received already – as our heavily backed boy Thyme Hill was pounced on in the final stride by the legendary Paisley Park in a Long Walk thriller at Ascot. As good a play as we had with Muker all those months back in June in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. Further proof positive that you gotta be ready to do both these days. Gamble and trade. LIM gambles have been going well past couple of months but as soon as I say so and attempt to play up, its the trades and winning great on a loser that delivers. 

I said I wouldn’t keep banging on about trading any more and for those who ignore it, it won’t be on the BOZmail next year. All trading plays move to the TRADE PAPER from March onwards so you gamble only guys will no longer here me banging on and I say for the very final time, the recommended these days is that you do both. LIM works for small field races one a day if you preserve the discipline. If that’s enough for you, you do right to just stick to that.

Trading is for everything else these days in the eyes of The BOZ.

And so to Sunday where I try again to take LIM into Xmas week in decent shape but on the back foot again now instead of the intended front foot! I did bank management though so not irretrievable ambition just yet.

I take Allavina as the clear choice over Martello Sky in this on back form having beaten twice and giving weight the first time. It is novice hurdle debut for both however so not an exact science and Martello Sky is a longer price (11/4) than I’d ideally wanted. Only other qualifying race looks less risky but harder to  be firm about because in this, I think both Allavina and Martello Sky have Saturn n Silk to worry about. Has the jumping experience and done ok in it and like Cheddleton on Saturday, can make the jumping the decisive factor despite being perhaps outpointed for speed  on the level. The other biggie for Saturn n Silk is Tom Scudamore riding for his brother. That has a very strong and positive stat attached. So Saturn n Silk it is for me at best price you can get. Might attract money so take some early as well as later is maybe the play. Either way, Martello Sky is the lay but too big a priced one to be staking up on. So modest play day again for me with partial recovery from Saturday only in mind.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MARTELLO SKY (around 3.8. Get as short as you can & no bigger than 4.0)

0.05pt BACK on SATURN n SILK (around 4.0 or best price you can get)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount – Entered for Huntingdon (Dec 22)

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo

Allart

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-20 HAYDOCK – CHEDDLETON @ 13/2 – 0.25pt BACK – 1st

Backed @ 5.8 : hedged 0.125pts @ 3.2 before the off and 10pts @ 1.01 in running :

P/L = +0.8085pts

2-25 ASCOT – THYME HILL @ 2/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd

Backed @ 3.41 : hedged 0.125pts @ 2.66 before the off and 2.5pts @1.1 & 5pts @1.01 in running : P/L = +2.3275 pts

Said most of what I wanted to say about these above. Cheddleton was heavily backed so seeing that I went in only for the 50% pre race hedge remembering what a sensational jumper he had been to get himself on my list. He was even better here!

And I’m talking serious top drawer. Stumbled on one here. Totally destroyed a quality field and had looked vulnerable to the Cornerstone Boy’s flat speed coming into the straight but jumped him senseless! I played the 1.01 to massive money from two out given that we are at Haydock and the long run in factor might have played to the quality flat horse. So I gave a tenner back. No regrets however despite it looking foolish with how Cheddleton stayed. We are talking winning a grand again if Cheddleton did fall in a hole. Or his jockey started looking nervously behind as happened in the Snow Leopardess race here. None of that. Cheddleton is just seriously top class. In terms of quality, jumps over Lady Bowes and Captain Zebo in To Follow list pecking order. Sits alongside Boothill. It is a good list we have at the minute!

But Thyme Hill got beat! And buoyed by Cheddleton I did the same for him and went 50% hedge when I saw the money starting to pour in pre off time. Chinned by the legendary Paisley Park in an absolute thriller of a finish. And the 1.01 play didn’t get matched but the 1.1 did (went as low as 1.07).

So Profit at the Death disciples who just bought the TRADE PAPER user manual paid for it and some big time. Apologies that hasn’t been flagged up to all yet. Only to those who got their 2021 subs in early. Mainly cos I only just finished writing it! It will be flagged up to everyone who signs up for next year.

Because of Muker and Pisgah Pike and Snow Leopardess et al, you know about it anyways. The systematic BOZ way to play trades from now on. Where you not only make profit most trade plays (often small) but you also have chance at the thrilling and mega wins even if you are relying on your fancy getting beat on the line. As we all know they sometimes do. Seems a funny way to bet. I admit that myself. I was only standing to win 0.095pt if Thyme Hill hung on but this was in a race featuring the greatest stayer of the lot in Paisley Park. Known for coming out of the clouds at the death. Roksana also looked a possible winner for me two furlongs out. Travelling lovely but Thyme Hill outbattled her. I had my 1.1 on because of her. I activated the 1.01 when I saw PP coming!! It is basically making hay out of the winning whatever the result principle. 0.095 has to be considered hay as well although I accept that in this context it doesn’t look so much so. That’s the getting your head round bit. Learning to be happy when the fancy hangs on and you only win small.

Gotta be a good way to go though especially if you are the sort with time to watch the races in real time. Request your copy of the TRADE PAPER user manual post haste if you wanna get your head around it more!!  

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +56.8986points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.3674 points (+13.3674 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 53.4817 points (+45.4817 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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