BOZmail – 20th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY DECEMBER 20th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +18.1652 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +70.625 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-30 ASCOT

Conditions anything like Exeter on Wednesday and this race does become a case of who handles it best. Both Ribble Valley and Time Flies By will be ok in the ground and thus you would have thought Ribble Valley can turn Cheltenham bumper form with Master Debonair where he was hampered by a clipping of heels and finished 10 lengths adrift for which he receives 3lb this time. Top class to follow horse, I have to stick with him really despite the price and the fact I think this is a much more open race than the betting allows for. Main danger would be Henderson’s Time Flies By on hurdle debut. Henderson does not tend to tilt at windmills and Geraghty there for the ride. Ribble Valley will indeed have to be every bit as good as he has looked and is no value at 4/5 but I find I cannot desert him and will simply play conservative in case there is an upset. His being a Northern raider is of some concern despite what the Richards stable say about Ribble Valley (apple of Nicky’s eye). I see the sensible play as a saver on Time Flies By (he is the win value) and a forecast as it should really come down to these two. But in the conditions?…. That’s if they run at all as we saw at Exeter on Wednesday. I play not to lose much and in so doing won’t win much either at the advertised tissue prices. 

Recommendations:

0.25pt BACK on RIBBLE VALLEY (around 1.8. Get better if you can)

0.075pt BACK on TIME FLIES BY (around 8.0 or better)

0.005pt REVERSE FORECAST

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 215/322 = 66.77% :   BACKS: 57/213 = 26.76%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

9th:    -0.2275(+0.1905) Lay @ 1.91

10th:   +0.245 (+0.4355) Lay @3.35

11th:    +0.047 (+0.4825) Lay @ 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

12th:    NON RUNNER

13th:    +0.294 (+0.7765) Lay @ 2.86

14th:    +0.147 (+0.9235) Lay @ 1.8

15th:    +0.4555 (+1.379) Lay @ 2.44 : Back @ 3.25

16th:    +0.294 (+1.673) Lay @ 4.0

17th:    +0.196 (+1.869)  Lay @ 2.88

18th:    +0.096 (+1.965) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 9.0

19th:    RACE ABANDONED

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC 

Kaizer* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Ascot (Dec 21)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* 

Wenceslaus* 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa* 

Vinndication –Entered for Ascot (Dec 21) + King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation* – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Ribble Valley* 

Kid Commando 

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory 

Esprit Du Large

Magic of Light

Defi Sacre

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on THURSDAY:

1-20 EXETER – UNWIN VC @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK – WON

(Backed @ 4.2 : Hedged in running at 1.8) = P/L  +0.6 points

Didn’t need to have hedged this now I’ve seen the replay. Every bit as impressive as the market said he would be over distance and in conditions. Rarely wasn’t able to watch today (Xmas family commitments) so didn’t know about market move and my hedge was left on from the morning in view of my statements about stable form. But now I’ve seen it, I know I could have done better. Hope you did! At least I backed at good early price. Another example of BOZ failing to profit optimise however. Hands up and pat on the back if you did better!

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

3-40 ASCOT – KID COMMANDO @ 4/1 – 0.25pt BACK

                         SOARING GLORY @ 9/4 – 0.25pt BACK

The market doesn’t think Kid Commando can overturn LTO course and distance form but I say 6lb and heavy going could engineer it. I also see no reason why Bravemansgame, who is being touted as the horse with greater potential, can over turn either on worse terms with both. So a small 0.05 point reversed forecast as well for me here with the hope & expectation of Kid Commando winning this time. It is a bumper though with other big dangers in it so I’ll be trading both win singles. Back at best price you can get and hedge when offered preferential odds.

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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