BOZmail 20th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY AUGUST 20th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.2152 points (+2.2152 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.5237 points (+7.5237 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.655 points (-0.345 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.3949 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.6825 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 43/55 = 78.18%  Backs : 7/25 = 28%

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LESS IS MORE:

3-15 YORK

A day off from the jumps following an unsatisfactory non runner on Wednesday and I spent the day as a weatherman instead in preparation for the go back on the flat again that I promised. Prompted by a sincere email conversation I had with a BOZmailer new to me yesterday which went something like this:

“ I hadn’t realised there was so much work involved in making your betting pay. “

Me: “ Yup”

“ You gotta spend hours looking for the right price, hours studying the form (assuming you know how to do it), you got to be a weatherman and know what difference different weathers make, know your horseflesh and animal psychology as well as the way the human mind works. You gotta know what difference it makes being drawn wide and what a difference there is on a downhill finish on a right hand track and an uphill finish on a left hand track….”

“Don’t forget the new all weather strip on the figure of eight track” I chipped in.

“ I thought you just picked your horse, plonked yer money on and enjoyed shouting it home all the way to the winning line. “

“ Have you tried doing that? “

“Yeh”

“How’d it go?”

“ It lost.”

“Mmm. Took me years to work that out “ I replied sympathetically.

“ Do I really need to become a weatherman? And tell the difference between a fit horse’s backside and an unfit one? “   

Me: “ Yup”

“ Losing was a lot less hassle.”

And you can’t argue with that!

The weather is a big deal at York today (Wednesday) and early on Thursday and has prompted me to look at taking on Love again in the Yorkshire Oaks. There is significant rain forecast for the York area on Wednesday so watch today to see how bad that is (it already accounted for our non runner on Wednesday and the likelihood that our proposed back will also become a no play) and keep an eye on the official going declared for York on Thursday. If it strays over into good to soft or especially soft, it has big implications for Love.

The O’Brien filly was impressive in the Guineas (against a potentially poor field – that form hasn’t really been advertised kindly) and I cast doubt on the Gallileo staying power when taking her on in the Epsom Oaks but she was electric there and was so far clear that the potential wobble in the last half furlong mattered not a jot. Both on good ground. Her ability to quicken on such is not in doubt. But rain blunts that according to her form profile so laying at 1/2 becomes attractively possible especially with the field up against her. Frankly Darling was the expected danger at Epsom but hated the undulating track even more than English King did and never got competitive spending all the middle part of the race just trying to stay balanced. She should be nearer this time but Frankie has forsaken her to go and ride two winners in quarantine France so her chance has been perceived damaged by that. Her price should stay long accordingly and there are stamina doubts about Franconia (who Frankie has also forsaken) and One Voice – the two main market opponents who do have  chance on times and form if proving they stay the extra distance. Add that to a Frankly Darling that should be much closer on the flat York track and should be ridden to try and make it a stamina test for Love, and you do have some question marks for Love if the ground also goes against her.

The big beneficiary of soft ground would be Manuela De Vega who is already proven in the mud when winning the Lancashire Oaks and is also a 4 year old (for which she carries 9lb extra). That weight penalty would likely see her off on good ground against Love’s turn of foot, but on rain softened ground, the year’s extra growth and strength might make a different story and 16/1 about her given the forecast might well be worth taking now.

That’s my advice. Lay Love and back Manuela De Vega now whilst the market is formed on likely good ground and maybe get involved in trading to two greens if the rains are not huge today but the prices both change in our favour anyway.

But stick with the traditional LIM play if the rain keeps on coming (forecast well into Thursday morning). That’s what this game is. Being a weatherman a big part of it. That’s your job today in lieu of any betting to do!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on LOVE (around 1.48 on Betfair as I write and anything under 1.6 would be the plan)

0.1pt BACK on MANUELA DE VEGA ( currently 17.0 on exchanges and with fixed odds bookies) 

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Salisbury (Aug 21)

Custard The Dragon

TO FOLLOW TRADES on THURSDAY at York:

1-45 – ON MY WAY @ 28/1 – 0.1pt BACK

2-15 – UNCLE JUMBO @ 9/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge back when appropriate and when preferential odds offered.

These are both opportunities with the caveat that my flat form remains lacking in confidence but then this is the Ebor meeting and the one place I did ok as a trader on the flat since lockdown was at Royal Ascot. I can still pick a good ‘un for the purpose here. Been waiting for Uncle Jumbo as his attitude was laudable when last seen and he has been saved and trained especially for this. Bit short at 9/1 given the competitiveness of the race and I’m looking for longer than that with the back and expect same with On My Way who steps up in class again but is likely to race prominent and give us a run for our money.

My strategy is to get best pre race hedge I can after taking as long as I can get night before and save some for potential in play hedge with both plausibly expected to be in the mix at the business end. So that might be 50% hedge night before (but more if there is a big run going on) and 50% saved for in play. That applies stronger to On My Way than Uncle Jumbo with the greater odds to play with and I may well green out on Uncle Jumbo if I get offered good hedge and haven’t got double figure back price. The form of his prep race hasn’t worked out especially and I wouldn’t fancy him to win overly were it not for that stick the neck out attitude he showed in shocking Significantly at Doncaster. So he might be one in the mix with 100 yards to go and as such, a bit of late in running action might pay dividends.   

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered at Cartmel (Aug 23)

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19) & Newton Abbot (Aug 21)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 22)

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Newton Abbot(Aug 21)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 22)

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach – Entered at Chepstow (Aug 23)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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