BOZmail – 20th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY APRIL 20th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-25 CARLISLE

Good Friday earned its title! With William Haggas up at Newcastle the market thought he was there for the winner so we even got our lay matched in running (I notice somebody got £23 at 2.8 before the off – well done if that was you!!) but the race read was spot on again. That’s called a good start to Easter weekend!

Practising LIM on Easter Saturday and Monday is never easy with so much racing to choose from but ever willing, the Boz has had a go!!

I take on School Lane in this Handicap Chase at Carlisle. As an Irish raider on Easter Saturday, he’ll be bet as a good thing again I suspect but you saw how Bank Holiday crowds can go doolally at that sort of thing so we might get a low grade lay at low risk odds especially as the two main English opponents would on the surface appear to prefer wet conditions. Instingtive is very much a local horse however who likes it here and can perform on better ground and has done now and again and does get a whopping stone and 6lbs weight advantage. Irish to English form comparison always a bit murky but I can’t see anything to suggest that is a correct weight spread. Graystown not out of it either with a good time on his record at this distance and the possibility that School Lane is just one of those pointers who can’t quite get to grips with running at Rules pace. Only ever won one Point, so far from my idea of an odds on for this.

Opechee is interesting. Has a time from last summer that would win this. At new stable now that is totally out of form and has run abysmally himself every race since so a stretch of imagination as the winner on form. Easter Saturday though. The general rule is that you can chuck the formbook out of the window on Easter Saturday!! Also entered at Market Rasen on Sunday which may be main objective so no bet if a non runner here and we may have another go Sunday!!

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on SCHOOL LANE (around 1.9 : no greater than 2.4)

0.1pt BACK on OPECHEE

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 88/124 = 70.96% :   BACKS: 20/81 = 24.69%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 2)

1-50 BATH – THE CRUISING LORD – 0.4pt BACK @ 6/5

(WON @ ISP of 5/2: BSP = 3.81 : in trading high of 3.95 : THE BOZ SETTLED @ 3.26)

What price did you get??!! You’ll see why I bang on about the importance of getting the best price you can. That was a serious helter skelter market experience which worked in our favour because our horse won! The form I highlighted held true. Did the 20 minute wait at the start work against Global Prospector as connections claim? The Market was sure he was gonna win!! Boy did they hammer that price! And continued doing so during the 20 minute delay. Our boy didn’t move back in. So the market thought it was still a shoo-in for Global Prospector. But if you saw the race, he patently didn’t handle the ground. Not an unusual sight at Bath where it gets lightning quick. Tapeta form here is worth diddly squat. And our boy clocked in under standard. He would have won anyway – without the delay. Tell that to the Market!! My settling came as a result of averaging my bets out. I kept piling on during the morning drift. Got some 2.2 early last night but some 3.6 and 3.7 on Friday and filled my final boots at average up to 3.26. Nowhere near as good as you guys who waited til today to stake or even backed SP! Did you? Sometimes you get lucky if you do!

So we’ll all have our different stake levels for the third leg of the acca. Mine will be 1.304. Some of you will be plonking heavier than that I know. Of course I may personally decide to count that as getting back losses and start the sequence again now my bank is back at ten points. What about you? Not rushing that decision and will keep you informed what I decide. What you do will of course be up to you. Chances are I’ll carry on. I said I would if we won that leg. Would be a bit churlish now not to go for a proper staggered acca after all the bad luck and near misses we’ve had so far.

More anon. Will shout when the next leg emerges.  BOZ

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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