BOZmail 20th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY APRIL 20th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.9362 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2968 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

MONDAY play in Crisis Corner

7-15 WILL ROGERS DOWNS

Hands up if you backed Tessie’s Red Sox! I’d actually be keen to hear what price you got if you did. Touch of Bozmail Rule number six for me I’m afraid as you’ll have noticed me looking for the whopper for a while now and might have put this one up if I could have found any reasons to suspect it might do what it did. I did look at it and have looked again now after the event and both times I can hand on heart say there was absolutely no evidence that it would do what it did. I haven’t let that stop me as you’ll have noticed a few times in this crisis spell as I do watch US racing a lot and am well familiar with the regularity with which the absolute no hopers come in. Always at stunning exchange prices. I suspect you might have got 120.0 on Tessie’s and I only don’t know because I was feeling despondent when sorting my tip yesterday and decided to go conservative for the get back in the black approach. A string of six successive successful lays. One in the bag. But I’m kicking myself over rule 6 as you can guarantee that the minute you give up on a stream is the minute it will strike. Let that be a lesson to all. It is a lesson I’ve learned a million times yet continue to ignore.

My race read said Peppermint Pink to beat Merengue and LIM says sort the lay to pay for the play. I was starting to doubt that LIM worked on US racing. Too many runners.

Lack of faith always punished.

But now of course, having lapsed, if I go back to my faith I shall be punished further with a string of April losers to add to the one I’ve already got. Incumbent on me to stick to the path I chose which, after all, did not let me down. Laying is my game ultimately. Kind of tipster I am. Can pick winners but this month has been a timely reminder to all who have started to think backing horse race winners is easy. It ain’t. Never. If you have your winning run (and it’s been over 24 months since I posted a losing monthly score) then you have earned it through diligence and hard work. The slightest let up in that can take you back to the minus scores. This month has seen a let up. We all know why. I think Merengue and Tessie’s Red Sox’s result was sent as a reminder to respect the laws of backing horses. Diligence and hard work. And trust in your faith. Chastened I am.

And sticking to the path I chose as my penance I also am. Just a lay again on Monday. I take Hong Kong Helen to get beat in this. The path I was previously on might have had me also backing Tell Me Boo Boo again as he is a market pointer like Tessie’s was and those following the dogs in Oz will know that can be as valuable an approach as any. I do not intend to put you off it. But if I tip it, the wrath of Rule 6 is there to ensure it doesn’t win. I know my place. I actually see reasons why Zipped and Deja Sue might win. They certainly have more chance on paper than Tessie’s Red Sox did!

But this is horse racing. And in case you didn’t know by now, it has a logic all its own.

I have learned to read it to a degree in UK racing after many,many long years of familiarity and toil.I am, I’m afraid, still in my apprenticeship when it comes to US racing! It will only improve if I practice and I did at least have enough nous to ensure that we did not injure our BLWM investment programme by staking right down during this spell. But any who doubt the importance I place on market watching and reading should know that I am seriously regretting not taking my own advice. It is indeed at least half (over half) of the battle. Picking winners is a trivia in comparison!

I may yet save my monthly run this April. It shall not be for want of trying!

Recommendation:

£2 LAY on HONG KONG HELEN

The Boz’s April US  Racing LIM results: (£100 bank)

1st:  -£4-85  (-£4-85) Lay @ 2.54 : Back @ 44.0

2nd:  NO BET

3rd: +£0-96  (-£3-89) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 8.7

4th: – £2-20  (-£6-09) Lay @ 1.6 : Back @ 14.0

5th: +£0-48  (-£5-61) Lay @ 2.16 : Back @ 5.15

6th: -£2-88   (-£8-49) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 13.0

7th: +1-45    (-£7-04) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 12.0

8th:  +0.98   (-£6-06) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 25.0

9th-12th: NO PLAY DUE TO ILLNESS

13th: +1-96 (-£4-10) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 20.0

14th: – 1-96 (-£6-06) Lay @ 1.48 : Back @ 7.2

15th: -3.00 (-£9-06) Lay @ 2.5

16th: NO BET

17th:  +0.98 (-£8-08) Lay@ 3.75 : Back @ 70.0

18th:  -3.25 (-£11-33) Lay@ 1.7 : Back @ 7.6

19th:  +1.96 (-£9-37) Lay @ 3.9

Crisis Corner LIM Strike Rates: Lays 14/23 = 60.86% : Backs 0/13 = 0%

Good luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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