BOZmail 1st OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

THURSDAY OCTOBER 1st  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +27.6187 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.7541 points (+5.7541 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 30.9501 points (+22.9501 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.0635 points (+0.0635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 83/116 = 71.55%  Backs : 22/72 = 30.55%

NO BET

Well LIM hardly covered itself in glory in September but stayed steady in what is notoriously a tricky month and as you’ll see from the above, lay % strike is still very high for the year (back SR also above average) and although that allows for the trade LIMs I did earlier under the post lockdown pressure, it is very encouraging as we move into the last phase now with a chance to try for optimising some profits. The trade successes have given us some moolah to play with so you will see stakes rising exponentially now over the last four months of the cycle and you may need to keep that in mind and adjust accordingly if you haven’t been playing the trades as I know some of you either cannot or prefer not to. I shall be increasing staking by 10% in October and if it goes well, a further 10% on each of the following months. And if Tig wins the tennis, I may go higher than that! Because the tennis is still my prime focus for the next ten days, I shall perhaps play steady to start with on LIM in October and of course there is still the lockdown uncertainty factor in there with larger than average fields over the jumps for this time of year. Just one LIM qualifier from two meetings on Thursday and a horrible one so I sit out for the day with more amenable fare expected at Fontwell on Friday. But still a case of taking each day as it comes really racing wise. Would not of course be expecting to be still doing tennis at this time of year either!

2020 is what 2020 is. A decidedly peculiar year!

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

24th: +0.147 (+0.6671) Lay @ 3.0

25th: +0.098 (+0.7651) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 55.0

26th:  -0.15   (+0.6151) Back @ 2.0

27th: NO BET

28th: +0.196 (+0.8111) Lay @ 5.1

29th: +0.147 (+0.9581) Back @ 2.0

30th:  +0.049 (+1.0071) Lay @ 1.91 : Back @ 9.4

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY FIVE)

Well it was all happening early on day four with Serena retiring from the competition which opens the doors a bit for others (and wide open now for Simona Halep) and Sara Errani took huge advantage of the moisture on the court to open a big first set lead against Kiki Bertens which allowed a handsome trade. She then proceeded to self destruct with the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen in a women’s tennis match (and I’ve seen some stuff over the years I’ve been watching) with her serving yips (inability to throw and hit the ball like golfers get on greens and darts players get at the dart board. Never seen it in tennis before) and need to deliver an underarm second serve which started to just gift the game to the bulldog Bertens who was literally floundering early in the match.Bertens had it in the bag (so I took a bit of my green position and had another nibble at Errani. It was that sort of match) and then decided to go all brittle herself. Bad thigh to be fair but just couldn’t bury Errani on her serve and gifted the second set back to Errani. From then on it was farcical. Neither player could hold their serve and you saw a trading yoyo the likes of which I never witnessed. Bertens hitting hard still but hobbling and unable to serve. Errani still doing her throwing the ball over her shoulder like salt and having to hit underarms just to stay in play. Well done if you traded it. Fortune to be made if you kept just going backwards and forwards on the price. No player ever looked likely to win and which it would be was impossible to call. I stayed out. Was so transfixed by the drama, I couldn’t concentrate. Had to have a lie down after! Never ever seen the likes. But it cements the notion that trading on tennis is where it is at!. Bagged my profit knowing it could have been barrowloads more! All good fun and sheckels in the trade bank to make up for the losing trade on Jessica Pegula late Tuesday night. Haven’t been many losing trades this year but that was one about which nothing could be done. She just never turned up against Sabalenka. It happens. Nothing however quite like the Bertens-Errani match. That will go down in the tennis annals!

And it is back to Ostapenko on day five as she takes on number two seed Karolina Pliskova. Gird the loins for another classic! It is 3-2 Pliskova on back score but could easily go either way. Much will depend on whether or not Ostapenko serves better than Errani did! Keep that finger on the button!

Bankers acca went down on Pavlyuchenkova and in view of the trades doing well and the outrights portfolio taking shape, I’m inclined to admit defeat with the bankers. This is patently not a bankers tournament. Big guns dropping like flies. Looks like a kids chance to shine to me. All eyes now turned to the outrights and a chance to call Ms Tig home on day five before starting to pick the kids in with a chance on that side of the draw. Elena Rybakina comes to mind. Watch her v Fiona Ferro. The future may lie in that game.

Second round bankers acca:

Simona Halep to beat Irina Camila Begu @ 1.1

Serena Williams to beat Tsvetana Pironkova @ 1.4 – VOID

Caroline Garcia to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich @ 1.58

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Katerina Siniakova @ 1.66 – LOST

0.1pt FOUR TIMER = P/L -0.1pt

Second round trades:

0.1pt BACK Sara Errani to beat Kiki Bertens @ 3.5 LOST (Trade Win)

Backed @ 3.6 & 0.02pt @ 11.0 : hedged 0.3pt @ 1.66 : P/L = +0.1764pts 

0.1pt BACK Kaia Kanepi to beat EliseMertens @ 4.6 LOST (Trade Win)

Backed @ 6.8 : hedged 0.12pt @ 5.0 : P/L = +0.0196pts

Was a bit slow out of the blocks backing Kanepi who was 0-1 and 30-40 down when I got to the match and I got my 6.8. She saved game point and after several ‘egalities’

held serve for 1-1 first set and I greened out to 0.1pt plus if she wins and 0.02pts if she loses and decided that was job done (good call as it turned out). Totally knackered after the Errani match which went over three hours. Decided to take a tea break and do some work on the outrights portfolio (see below). Nearly as hard being a trader as it is being a tennis player!

Here’s your quota of trades for day five to ponder. If the Ostapenko game goes as per with the yoyoing, I shall be looking for some easy and early greens again on the other two!

Day Five Second round trades:

0.1pt BACK Jelena Ostapenko to beat Karolina Pliskova @ 2.72

0.1pt BACK Daria Kasatkina to beat Ariyna Sabalenka @ 2.36

0.1pt BACK Ana Bogdan to beat Sofia Kenin @ 3.15

First round trades or value bets against the book:

0.1pt BACK Heather Watson to beat Fiona Ferro @ 5.5 – LOST (Trade Win)

Backed @ 5.5 : Hedged 0.22pts @ 2.78 : P/L = +0.1176pts (-0.1)

0.1pt BACK Shaui Zhang to beat Madison Keys @ 3.2 -WON

Backed @ 3.4 : Hedged 0.2pts @ 1.55 : P/L = +0.1274pts (+0.22)

0.1pt BACK Misaki Doi to beat Petra Martic @ 6.2 – LOST (Trade Win)

Backed @ 6.2 : Hedged 0.25pts @ 2.6 : P/L = +0.147pts (-0.1) 

0.1pt BACK Jessica Pegula to beat Aryna Sabalenka @ 3.05 – LOST

Backed @ 3.1 : Never hedged : P/L = -0.1pt (-0.1)

0.1pt BACK Daria Gavrilova to beat Dayana Yastremska @ 4.6 – WON

Backed @ 5.5 : Hedged 0.2pts @ 1.91 & 0.1pt @ 1.08 : P/L = +0.2548pts (+0.36)

Hedges taken at 5-2 first set & 5-3 match point second set.

1 pt LAY Jelena Ostapenko v Madison Brengle @ 1.3 – LOST (Trade Win)  

Laid @ 1.29 : Hedged 0.8pts @ 1.44 : P/L = +0.0607pts (-0.29)

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia Maria Tig @ 450.0  (+45.05) 

0.05pt BACK Caroline Garcia @ 80.0 (+4.05)

0.05pt BACK Iga Swiatek @ 24.0  (+1.25)

0.05pt BACK Amanda Anisimova @ 40.0 (+2.05)

0.3pt LAY on Simona Halep @ 3.2  (-0.91)

REST OF THE FIELD (+0.05)

Gavrilova and Errani disappeared off my outrights radar (to think I nearly backed a woman with the yips for outright winner!!) but Swiatek seriously on it now after another demolition job second round. May have missed the boat and certainly missed the price on her but have to be on in case she does it. Been bigging her up for over two years now. Garcia is another head case player but Serena’s defection opens it up for her. Now just to decide if anyone can beat Halep. I think maybe Amanda Anisimova gets that job next round. She did already beat her at the Garros last year. Light bulb time!

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.3pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +0.8035pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered at Hexham (Oct 2)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly – Entered at Hexham (Oct 2)

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on THURSDAY:

1-45 Warwick – Calum Gilhooley @ 9/2 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

First time out in handicap so will be a tough ask despite recent excellent form in novice races. One to follow long term and assess how he does in this. Trade meantime for small return either way.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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