BOZmail – 1st NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 1st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +61.051 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

1-55 WETHERBY

Old story. Boz plays it safe and gets it bang on! You got some serious value if you backed Black Op. The only doubt for me really was the race fitness angle. The formbook put him miles ahead. Yet the market smashed into Lisnagar. They couldn’t get enough.Over £200k staked on him in the ten mins before the off. On a horse who had shown FTO that he might not be a chase prospect. Isn’t. Small and backs off the odd fence. Doesn’t like the look. Wants to go back to diddly hurdles!! Can you blame him? Black Op the complete reverse. Big stamp of a chaser and totally dominated this. That back form now looks tremendous so he makes my to follow with the wind op having also sorted him out by the looks. Most impressive horse I’ve seen so far this NH season. On the list. And LIM finishes October on a good note after a funny old sequence. Crap then great then crap again! I’m working on how to give the crap a swerve in future! More on that in the sheets ahead as I start to unveil plans for BOZmail 2020. Enough for now to note that LIM bank has now tripled since start of cycle 11 months back. Aiming for quadrupled by end of year!

Meanwhile first LIM in November is a direct follow on from Halloween race. Lisnagar Oscar ran Ardlethen close at Chepstow so that was a serious form blip for the Skelton horse taking on staying hurdle supremo Sam Spinner here. I usually like to take the hurdler trying chasing on but came unstuck with Sam Spinner who jumped like a carthorse early LTO but warmed to the task and up the straight was running pretty much like Black Op was today. Making ground hand over fist. Ardlethen form has winners aswell as yesterday’s loser in it but Sam Spinner form had Return Ticket well behind. And this is over half a mile further. So Sam Spinner can be expected to stay on even more so in this. Top class stayer. Skelton will have a yardstick because of Beakstown at Wetherby but Beakstown was a much classier hurdler than Ardlethen. And I was so impressed with how Sam Spinner got his act together over fences. No guarantee, especially if it turns out Ardlethen is the chaser of the two but in terms of class, as equallyish priced favs, it’s no contest for me. Sam Spinner all the way.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on ARDLETHEN (around 2.3 : no greater than 2.6)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 182/278 = 65.46% :   BACKS: 52/189 = 27.51%

This month’s scores so far:

31st:    +0.343 (+2.815) Lay @ 1.8

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi Entered for Wetherby (Nov 2)

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry – Entered for Exeter (Nov 5)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra 

Black Op

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

2-30 WETHERBY – NORDANO – 0.25pt WIN @ 6/1

12-55 UTTOXETER – WENCESLAUS – 0.25pt WIN @ 5/1

Nordano race competitive and Wenceslaus race huge field but quite fancy both with Bridgewater’s charge on a particlularly favourable mark. Will back both to trade in running but may leave them be if they look to be going well as both are impressive winners already this year with the back until beat label on them. In that vein, I also stake a 0.1pt WIN DOUBLE on the pair just in case. Total spend = 0.6pt to be taken from to follow bank.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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