BOZmail 1st NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1st  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +43.0501 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.9028 points (+7.9028 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 44.5378 points (+36.5378 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7585 points (-0.2415 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 99/137 = 72.26%  Backs : 26/86 = 30.23%

2-40 CARLISLE

A mighty fine race to start the new month and you could back all six of these and know you were on a good one. I stick with a favourite of mine Black Op who was unlucky to finish second behind The Champ and Slate House in two top races last season and is often at his best FTO.

Imperial Aura is a classy LIM cover and has, like all, got to overcome the lay off which is what Black Op tends to do best. The lay because of his novice jumping status and slightly lesser times is Brewin’upastorm who is a simple payer for the bet rather than a strong lay given that he – like all of these – has a bit of class if he should put best foot forward.

A couple more rather top trades to play also on Sunday (see below) including our perennial income stream – The Jugopolist – who now rows in at 13 years young!

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on BREWIN’UPASTORM (around 3.5)

0.1pt BACK on BLACK OP (around 5.0)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou

Soaring Glory Entered @ Exeter (Nov 3) & Newbury (Nov 5)

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame – Entered @ Exeter (Nov 3)

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Market Rasen (Nov 5)

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road – Entered @ Newbury (Nov 5)

Carroll’s Milan – Entered @ Market Rasen (Nov 5)

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus – Entered @ Huntingdon (Nov 1)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Newbury (Nov 5)

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani – Entered@ Newbury (Nov 5)

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-47 ASCOT – STRAW FAN JACK @ 6/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd

Backed @ 11.0 : Hedged 0.15pt @ 9.0 & 0.15pt @ 3.5 & 5pts @ 1.1

: P/L = +4.949pts

Ran a blinder and would have won it but for the stumble at the last but put up as a 1.1 player and was thus better a loser! Stood to win £42-50 if he won but £505(less commission) as a loser!Hope you were on. Kept the acca in play too! Had he won, the acca was my play for the big money! Way to go.

My 11.0 back was a bit undercooked. Some 18.0 on offer had I waited. Also my 1.01 not matched although it did go down to 1.05. Perfect trade race again. Flagged up beforehand as such.The Trade Paper will be full of these next year!

2-10 WETHERBY – MRS HYDE @ 20/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 1st

Backed @ 21.0 : Hedged 0.45pt @ 11.0 & 1pt@ 1.1 : P/L = +0.392pt

Well that was one for all you who hate trading! Hope you got the 20/1 or near it. There was 16/1 and 17/1 around in plentiful amount for most of the early stretch last night. And those who’ve been with me a while now know that Verdana Blue don’t do soft ground! You could have had your mortgage on it! So I only win £39 (no complaints as my acca is still alive and gives me hedging potential now!) and its £500 for the backers this time. We did a study a while ago that showed backers and traders very closely matched long term over the to follow list but my studies in recent times have all favoured the trader. Today however is a big strike back for backers! I did have a small 1.1 on this but confess my heart wasn’t in it. I could see Mrs Hyde had it and I knew Verdana wouldn’t do the ground. So gave them a tenner back. Hey ho.

3-05 ASCOT – CAIUS MARCIUS @ 14/1 – 0.15pt BACK – Unplaced

Backed @ 19.0 : Hedged 0.2pt @ 13.0 : P/L = +0.049pt

Hey ho again. He goes off the list for that!

3-55 WETHERBY – CALUM GILHOOLEY @ 10/1  – 0.15pt BACK – 5th

Backed @ 15.0 : Hedged 0.25pt @ 8.6 : P/L +0.098pt

Always outpaced. Did make late ground through beaten horses but never in it. Market was very keen. Was that us?? Gets one more chance on the list. Still learning handicaps and they do take some horses ages to master. 

Total Spend = 0.005pt – LOST

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

2-22 HUNTINGDON – WENCESLAUS @ 13/2 – 0.2pt BACK

3-58 HUNTINGDON – THE JUGOPOLIST @ 50/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best prices that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered

I am sort of tempted to let these run as bets as neither horse owes us a bean after several years now of loyal service. I leave the decision with you. I may trade to see what profit I’ve got going into the off and then back again if the fancy takes me when I see the old boys at the starting gate. I am misty eyed about both.

On race reads, The Jugopolist will need the fav to fall but he invariably has always needed that! Loves Huntingdon. Just keeps on galloping from the front and 1 time in 20 is primed to stay there! On his mark. Love his jockey Lee Edwards who is a serious trier who gets little glory. Just a bet I shall enjoy win or lose! The trade is also a way to print money at the prices likely on the exchanges. He hasn’t won now since his last jaunt for us at 50s whilst everyone was watching the 2019 Cheltenham Festival. Time is ripe again?

Wenceslaus is on a career high mark but keeps improving even at his age. Bridgewater is a genius with these sorts and he looked ready to win LTO so I don’t rule it out despite on paper having an each way shout.

A 0.01pt WIN DOUBLE for the Boz also. Just in that sort of mood after Saturday!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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