BOZmail 1st MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MARCH 1st 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

3-15 DONCASTER

Decent race read to finish the month on a three day win streak as per plan. Bastien didn’t jump well enough and it was the other highlighted cover on the Nicholls horse that prevailed. Very noticeable that Nicholls’ team continues in fine form pre-festival and that’s a huge nod in my book with the two best British jockeys of the moment – Cobden and Frost – set to keep banging in the winners. If you play Cheltenham seriously, keep the Nicholls runners to the fore.

As for LIM in February. Well, it didn’t cover itself in glory but managed a 15/12 winday/lossday ratio to come out ahead by enough to avert a second successive dismal time of year month and if anything, I found February more challenging than the traditionally sticky January this year. Considering the two day negative start and then the equine flu putting us on a first half of month back foot, reasonably happy to come out ahead in the way it has and keeps the gradual accumulation of profit assertion on course if a little behind annual momentum wise. Nothing a good Cheltenham won’t cure and before that we have a glut of to follow horses lined up in the next few days aswell as THE BOZMAIL IN IRELAND bi-annual visit to look forward to. I go as often as I can for a shufty round the Emerald Isle prior to the Festival to see if I can’t pick up a dark horse to follow. Will be at Leopardstown on Monday March 4th and the BOZmail will be published from Ireland from Saturday March 2nd right through to Wednesday March 6th. The place I stay is very rural with limited broadband service but I’ve been assured all will work ok and I have published from there successfully before. Times of publication may change though as the wifi goes under old fashioned ‘kids out of school’ pressure from around 3pm to 9pm most days so it may be late at night or early on the morning of racing that you get your BOZmail in Ireland posts. The format may also be more abbreviated as I’ll be working from different machines. To Follow list may not be featured for five days so I’ve done all the entries now so that you are fully informed and can keep an eye on what actually runs if my missives should become a little erratic. Not expecting problems mind and normal full service will in any case be resumed when I land back in Blighty on March 7th.

And so on to the first LIM in March which comes from Doncaster. Donald McCain’s horses are yet to click back into gear and he had one run out at 1/2 on and one withdrawn because of ground on Thursday. Stable still under a bit of a cloud and even without that, Thyne for Gold looks in the handicapper’s grip for this. Presence of Hughes in the saddle should keep the price layable and Away for Slates looks a decent shout for winning fav despite having to carry penalty for win LTO. Might do that as was above this level as a hurdler and showed natural penchant for fences on first two efforts. Gets weight also. The dark horse in the race is Tom George’s Cruiseaweigh who will come on for LTO effort after a long absence and has the scope to improve past these as a natural chasing type. Modest start to the month though to try and avoid the backfoot effect that marred last month.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on THYNE FOR GOLD (around 3.6 and no greater than 4.0)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 55/77 = 71.42% :   BACKS: 11/50 = 22%

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.9375 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  – Entered for Kelso (Mar 2)

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for the Ultima (Mar 12) & The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC – Entered at Exeter (Mar 5)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale – Entered for Newbury (Mar 2)

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva –  Entered for Newbury (Mar 2) & Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Parlour Maid – Entered for Exeter (Mar 5)

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Exeter (Mar 5) & Fontwell (Mar 6)

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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