BOZmail – 1st JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JUNE 1st  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 –        )  overall profit = 

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Suspended until further notice:

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THE BOZmail post lockdown litmus test:

There are two main dangling questions as we go back into UK racing that we need to know the answer to before we start betting properly.

1/ How much can form be taken as a guide to likely outcome of results?

2/ What kind of grip has the market got on predicting likely winners?

At first sight, the opening salvo looks an absolute betting nightmare. Finding winners may well be a case of getting out the pin and sticking it into the 120 declared runners.

If you find a winner that way (or any other way for that matter), you’ll have done well!

So much is a case of not knowing how ready the horses will be to run their race. Over two weeks into the return of French racing now, and the sight of a plethora of ‘fancied’ horses cantering in at the rear or having even been pulled up without completing is the norm. Accurately picking winners is a tough old game at the best of times. Pretty much a lottery at the minute.

And so we tread with care and the use of the Shortlist system as a litmus test to try to answer the above two questions seems the wise way forward. It will give us a guide of what to expect on a normal day and we can thus see from its scores how much we can safely go back to race reading based on the formbook and how much we should instead simply be following the value being created by a market that is scratching its head over likely outcomes. There are those that say the only people who will know what to expect of their charges in the coming few weeks will be the stables who have an inkling of how ready their horses are to race. And yet you hear over and over from trainers that they are as clueless as the rest of us during a time like this as horses not racing at the track are notoriously unpredictable when returning to it. What they are showing on the gallops and what they can do on the course in the melee of a race are two very different things. As for races behind closed doors without the atmosphere a watching crowd brings. Many a horse runs flat because of that.

So being a predictor of winners in this spell is a big ask. Rather a layer than a backer be! That is the ultimate BOZ conclusion. And yet we cannot resist trying to be the one who sees through the murk and manages to call a couple of double figure priced winners. I’ve found a couple for this first day that I fancy. Could easily be as successful as my efforts to find a winner in US racing and my even less successful attempts to race read in France. Neither of those went well. I come back to Britain to specialise in horses that won’t win as much as finding winners. Back, as they say, on home ground. Terra firma. Doing what I do best!

So how will we be approaching these first few days and the sight of ten races at Newcastle with a given regimented maximum field of twelve runners each? The main advice is watch and see. The first thing to note is that the Shortlist system – in its fundamental mode by the way without any filters narrowing things down to create lower incidences – has picked 40 possible winners from 120 runners. That is a 33.33% total of all runners before we begin with only 10 possible winners meaning a guaranteed 30 losers. Faced with 30 certain losers, the logic again demands that if we do bet, we bet to lose not to win. Losers are sure to be both statistically and logistically easier to find in this spell. It makes sense to specialise in them.

Whether or not you play on this first day – without any clue yet to the answers to our two key questions – is up to you. Bet starved punters may not be able to resist after the past ten weeks. I might be one of them. If you do play, the advice is to stay disciplined and keep stakes small until we have seen the data. At least seven days results before we can be sure about answers to the above although day one is certainly going to give us an inkling.

My guess based on what I’ve seen of French racing’s return to action is that both form and the markets will be all over the place. Suggesting either the course of abstinence from betting until things settle back down or the shrewd course of simply following value to level stakes. That is likely to be my course. And value laying rather than value backing as I have hinted.Never will the dictate of Get the best price you can be more important. These next few days are all about that. Seek out the value. Forget about backing favs. No-one is going to have any idea what to expect from them. Level stakes laying the favs is as simple a system as any likely to show a profit.

The shortlist however gives us a tool to be a little more sophisticated. It has picked forty runners it thinks have a decent chance of winning the ten races. Past performance at the track suggests only a 30-40% success rate (and that’s not over 20+ years as Newcastle has not been an all weather track for that long but still a reliable long incidence) so that the number of losers in the list below suddenly spurts up to a likely 36-37 from the 40. What form study I have managed suggests indeed that that is likely. Several horses each race not on the shortlist can be given decent chance for sure. You’ll see the Racing Post pundits agreeing with that. Several of their picks not highlighted. But in truth of course, they are like everyone else. Using a pin and sticking it in. Laying is the game. That’s for sure in my book. Level stakes the forty runners and so long as the three to four likely winners are not all double figure win prices, a profit should ensue. It’s not a gimme however and I can hear the reluctance of the cautious to be getting involved in that much laying. If that’s you. Sit and watch.

You need only answers to the question above. And you’ll get those for sure. If more than 3 or 4 winners appear from the list on Monday, there will definitely be something funny going on. Something abnormal. More likely is as low as 1 or 2 winners from the list and if those are Mutasaamy and Frankly Darling (the two so called odds on certs of the day’s racing), profit from laying the 38 odd losers will be sizable. That’s my play for the day. I’ll be on full time market watch to make sure I’m getting best price I can on every lay.  Keeping stakes modest however and having a big starting bank to create liquidity from. Mainly I’m watching to get answers to the two key questions.

Because I’m like every other punter in the land however, I have looked at the list to try and scent out a couple of big priced winners as well. For those of you horrified by the idea of laying 38 losers (whatever their price. There will of course be those only laying under a sensible marker of say 5 or 6 to one) and keen just to watch for our answers and maybe have a couple of fun bets that won’t hurt if they lose but will create much merriment if they win, I have spotted two. I like Gaye Kelleway’s Cosmelli at around 20/1 in the 5-05. Does look to have sneaked in at bottom weight. She’s a fav canny trainer and the booking of Luke Morris is promising. Horse has the form to upset a few of the cantering in unfits it is sure to face. Will it be fit itself? That’s why I won’t be having more than a quid on. Just a fun back on a day of watching the form and laying like a trojan! The second BOZ dark horse for the 50p double is Little Jo in the 1-35. Looks well treated but with all the caveats again of just me sticking in a pin.

Those are the two I shall not be laying at any kind of long price anyways. All the others I’m getting stuck into!

And let’s see what happens. As I say, if too much action doesn’t appeal, it is a sit and watch day. Newcastle is not a Shortlist premier track and so more than four winners from the list below will be a surprise. But this is unprecedented times in the world and horse racing so nothing is certain at the moment. Part of the fun will be seeing what happens next. Sensible folk will for sure have their hands in their pockets watching.

My resume of what occurs and what it tells us comes on the morrow. In the meantime,stay safe.

BOZ

NEWCASTLE SHORTLIST: (1.6.20)

1-00 Al Ozzdi – Zodiakos – Ghadbaan – Tiercel – My Boy Lewis

1-35 Geizy Teizy – Defence Treaty – Mutasaamy – Amadeus Grey –

         Cote D’Azur – Indian Viceroy – Little Jo

2-10 Bonds Boy – Little Red Socks

2-45 Art Power – Magical Journey

3-20 Heath Charnock – Lincoln Park – Tenax – Tathmeen – Brian The

         Snail – I Am A Dreamer

3-55 Taste The Nectar – Red Treble – Macho Touch – Oakenshield –

         Shoot to Kill – Written Broadcast

4-30 Queen of Kalahari – Excessable – Hard Solution – Puchita –

         Requinto Dawn

5-05 Star of The East – Cosmelli – Makawee

5-40 Thibaan – Frankly Darling 

6-15 Byzantine Empire – Assayaer

(Incidence : 40 selections in 10 races)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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