BOZmail – 1st JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JULY 1st  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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Not tipping in the first round at Wimbledon as indicated yesterday. Long hard study has given me a handle for the days ahead without finding any nailed ons worth betting for round one. Those who like to trade might like to give the following a look over. There will be profit to be made in these I would have thought if trading is your thing: Start with a back on the former and hedge back as and when appropriate. Alternatively a single point level stake on all five should show a profit. I’d expect two or three correct at least.

Barbora Strycova to beat Lesia Tsurenko

Anna Friedsam to beat Margaret Gasparyan

Madison Brengle to beat Marketa Vondrousova

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Hsieh Su-Wei

Yulia Putintseva to beat Naomi Osaka

That latter is a repeat of the Edgbaston successful lay on World number two Naomi Osaka. Can the upset happen again? I would say a distinct possibility.

Madison Brengle is the outsider of the five and should be competitive against the French Open finalist who wouldn’t yet be an expert on grass.

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon is less exciting than I’d hoped. If you read my preview on Friday (if you didn’t and you’d like to, shout and I’ll send) you’ll have found that two of my longshots are injury defections and a third – Julia Goerges – has a disadvantageous draw. There is also the way Pliskova played in the Eastbourne final (that saw her plummet to joint fav with Barty) and I’d agree that the arrival of Conchita Martinez as her coach would justify that market support. Martinez made all the difference to Muguruza in her winning year and has already had the effect on Pliskova it would seem. She is able to pinpoint what her charges should do to turn in a championship performer.

So I tend toward a fav winning at SW19 most likely now. Barty or Pliskova. My Portfolio therefore less expansive. For those interested it stays with a lay on Serena to pay for a small bet on the rest as follows:

0.75pt LAY on SERENA WILLIAMS 

0.1pt BACK on ASH BARTY

0.1pt BACK on KAROLINA PLISKOVA

0.1pt BACK on PETRA KVITOVA

0.1pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO

0.1pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA

0.1pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN

Might revisit after seeing round 1 matches but might also leave at that for this year and concentrate on match bets for the staggered acca effort. Watch this space.

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-30 PONTEFRACT

Did restore some order on last day of June and here’s to getting off to a good start in July. Market wants Johnston’s Monoski who shot off like his tail was on fire in the Coventry after a convincing win here previously. Faded badly at Ascot and was caught and passed by Lord of the Lodge who could uphold that form here and is good LIM cover. Other two have a feasible chance too. Monoski will blast out and lead as Johnston’s sprinters tend to do but all other three have times to challenge him and the value lies in the Easterby outsider – Hurstwood – who might get left behind a bit early but has so far showed all the signs that a stiff 6 furlongs will bring out some serious improvement. Times of all three opponents compare favourably with Monoski who might only win if he spits at the opposition as Johnston’s sprinters oft have to do – hard cases that they usually are!! Not an even money chance in my book.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on MONOSKI (around 2.0 or 2.1 or better : no greater than 2.5)

0.1pt BACK on HURSTWOOD

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This month plays so far:

30th:     +0.245(+5.1977) Lay @ 3.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 117/175 = 66.85% :   BACKS: 31/115 = 26.95%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

HORSE TO TRADE on SUNDAY:

4-15 CARTMEL -BACK – GET OUT THE GATE @ 7/1 or better

Saddle slipped which accounted for his drop back through the field and disappointing finishing position. Hope you got chance to lay whilst he was up with the pace. Jumped and was running well for half the race and looked a serious sort in the saddling boxes and paddock as a fellow BOZmailer at my side will testify to.I stayed at the course to watch so didn’t trade but I still have great hope for him. Stable wasn’t in good fettle for this and track was maybe too sharp and undulating. Seemed to suit the flat galloping track with those first two wins. No excuses mind and his pace in a race at higher grade will still need to be proved. I love the way he jumps though and would see 3 miles as a minimum in future. Still a possible Gold Cup horse but thinking a little less that way after today! Morning Royalty cheered me from my disappointment in the result by winking at me in the paddock before the last. Long standing BOZmailers will know what that meant!!

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 13: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start the Wimbledon effort.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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