BOZmail – 1st JANUARY 2019

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY JANUARY 1st 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Before I begin, just a couple of bits from the FYI department.

Firstly many thanks for all the kind messages over the past few days of our post Xmas plusses. Always appreciated and appreciated even more when things aren’t going so well!  He who consoled me on the Redditch result gets especial mention and it’s good to know we feel such pain together! Made up for it with two good reads on the all weather which is particularly pleasing as my strategy for what is traditionally a testing month for tipping (January) is to utilise the all weather when the NH fare is not behaving. To have scored 100% in the three races I read in December on the all weather is very encouraging. I will also be bringing in the Australian Open women’s tennis which starts on January 14th and that also tends to fill some tipping gaps that usually occur in January. Ground often plays havoc with jumps racing this time of year and I will be on the case minimising damage if it gets challenging again this year.

Just received the scores on the doors for December from the service arbiter and see that even conservative estimates have added 25% to the LIM bank which gives us scope for some reinvestment of profits this month when the fancy is strong. It is accepted that playing LIM to SP will often give you a lesser score (although it is accepted that for some people that is a necessary option) and remember always that study and observation of the markets and staking your lays in particular at most preferential prices does pay dividends. As does seeking to minimise commission charge and I personally find myself playing more often with Betdaq these days since they introduced their blanket 2% commission charge. It makes a difference to your score in a month like the one we just had. As does always seeking to minimise the effects of a drifting lay that wins as happened to us with Niven. It pays to get on early in general with lays once the tissue markets are being reflected in the exchange play or at least using partial staking methods that also allow for trading to recommended stake although I acknowledge that such methods do require the available time to watch and study markets as they evolve and for those without the time to devout to this, options are limited. I am keeping such players very much in mind in my modus operandi for this service and my caution is thus even more pronounced than ever.

 

We’ll still end up showing a profit, never fear. Likely to be different for each of us depending on what prices we achieve.

The other thing I wanted to mention quickly in answer to those asking about whether lay recommendations are a reflection of recommended stake or recommended liability, the answer is, as the words suggest, very much the former. We are running a betting service rather than a bookamaking or banking one and thus the recommended is very much a stake recommendation with the rules caveat that you obtain the best price that you can thus making any liabilities as low as you can get them. A 1pt lay does mean a 1pt lay whatever the price but always remember that I have set the recommendation based on sight of the forecast tissue price and you should always get a handle on that too before you place your bet so as to not stake anything overly risky. Work within your own parameters of comfort by all means but never be afraid to abstain if in your judgement the bet looks overly risky at the prices you are being offered (another reason for avoiding SP betting like the plague). This applies in particular to lay prices where large fluctuation from when I posted the advice can change the liability enormously. My advice would always be never worry if you have missed the acceptable lay price. You’ve seen my Strike Rate figures now. There’ll always be another one along soon and better to miss a lay rather than chance it at an unacceptable price.

Same principle does apply to backs but is less fraught with risk.

 

Hope that answers the queries and clarifies the advised way to play.

 

BOZ   

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

1-15 EXETER

And on to another day packed full of action. Another day for the punter to lose a fortune on as my bookmaking Dad always used to say about Bank Holiday racing. There will be none of that here! Especially after two days of posting both back and lay winners. That profit stays firmly in the coffers with hawsers and double lock pincers applied!

Races are often framed with the bookmaking fraternity in mind on bank holidays. Easy for them to post outrageous overounds without anyone having the time to notice. So much going on.

The Boz as ever stays selective on such days and I have wrestled with several options before settling on this race as my play mainly because my old mate Cliffs of Dover runs in it. He won five on the bounce for the BOZmail a couple of years back and was our candidate for Champion Hurdle glory. Then the wheels came off and he had a 400 plus days absence due to we know not what and when he re-appeared,he showed up as an equine headcase who had completely lost the ability to settle in his race. Pulled Harry Cobden’s arms out at Wincanton before having to be pulled up.

Was then mollycoddled into some grade 5 races on the flat at Lingfield where Megan Nicholls coaxed him to confidence boosting wins before a return to grass at Haydock where he bolted again in a Class 4 race only this time didn’t come back to his field and showed his always in situ class to win by 12 lengths. On the strength of that they entered him into the Cesarawitch where he did his bolt act again and got annihilated by a bunch of class 1 flat horses.

And so the circus goes on to here where he is back over hurdles in a Class 3 handicap which he would munch on his novice form but leaves whopping great question marks around for the purpose of betting. A long way from Champion hurdle class as a race but I’m not totally sure connections have given up on that yet and the booking of Bryony Frost does suggest they might be trying the female mollycoddling approach again. Fair do. If anyone can make it work Bryony can but Cliffs looks to have soured at the game to me. Last two races he laid down tools at the 2 mile mark at Haydock and then cocked his jaw final furlong at Doncaster after being produced by Cobden to win his race. Came a reluctant third. Possible the Haydock race was just a distance too far and if so, this race is likewise and I chose this race expecting him to be short priced favourite with the idea of laying. He is however 3/1 and even for a headcase like he now looks over a distance possibly too far, I’m not laying at that. He is still the talented champion hurdle possible and they did make the entry for him again in 2018 suggesting that they feel they only need to unlock his headstrong tendency and get him to settle again in order to show his latent class.

But I’m not backing either at 3/1. I’ll shout for him to win and if he does, I’ll consider an each way voucher in the Champion hurdle if they enter him at big odds again. He was 66/1 last year. He’ll be a 100/1 plus this year if he makes it to the start.

So just a lay on the tissue fav Ebony Gale for me. Has almost as many issues to answer as Cliffs but more of the ability to jump variety (where Cliffs is still generally ok) and might do well to get round again here as it is a competitive affair with Trans Express a distinct possible winner should Cliffs go absent again.Ebony Gale is a novice too trying handicap company for the first time. Add to that that the three rags have also all got credentials, if somewhat difficult to assess ones, and you have a low risk race laying the fav who has the added negative of not having the champion jockey on board this time to make sure he meets his fences right.

Small play as a race though after the bonanza results of the past few days. More of a watch to see if we still have a possible Champion hurdle candidate!   

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on EBONY GALE

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 23.5/29 = 81.03% :   BACKS: 4/19 = 21.05%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see changing all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time. I will start by assuming fixed odds betting is the majority way but would stress that my advices at the start of this missive still apply. Aim to take a price that beats SP. If you have time to watch the market evolve, there is still plenty of chance to action that.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

First runner is at 1-00 Catterick on New year’s day – NICOLAS CHAUVIN – 0.25pt BACK

Spotted running into form at Catterick LTO over fences and is entered here off a very low hurdles mark. A senior character these days after an early career in the Henderson yard. Has never been the most flamboyant character but has a modicum of class on his day and can be expected to be fitter and see out the long Catterick finish better this time round under the careful gaze of Jimmy Moffatt who specialises in this kind of horse. A neighbour of mine and the local vibes are positive. Betting price should probably be taken early as the stable will contract price near the off if they are expecting a result. How early is always hard to be sure of. I will be taking some early 5/1 on the exchanges but won’t be put off taking more at much bigger prices if it occurs hoping to have got my full stake on by around 30 minutes before the off.   

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin – Entered for Catterick(Jan 1)& Ayr(Jan 2)

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

 

RECOMMENDED PLAY:

1-00 CATTERICK – NICOLAS CHAUVIN – 0.25pt BACK

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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