BOZmail 1st DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

TUESDAY DECEMBER 1st  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 115/162 = 70.98%  Backs : 33/101 = 32.67%

2-53 LINGFIELD

What a price on Hear No Evil! Not many times this year when the price I got has been beaten by the ISP! And Sean Bowen and the Irish factor every bit as significant as I’d hoped – for a stellar end to the month after all. Been a funny second half of the month but a plus shown in that as well now despite the plethora of losers. Thanks to Sean.

He did his lifting the horse home bit again. One of three great rides I’ve watched in the last two days. Max Kendrick on Aviewtothesea and Charlotte Jones on No Hiding Place both superlative at Carlisle yesterday.

On into Christmas month but day 1 looks a bit daunting and I nearly called a no bet day with several interesting entries for the next few days. This race just scrapes in although I don’t like the prices much. I think Milton Harris holds the key to the race leaving Aintree My Dream in at the top of the weights to suppress the weight given to Away for Slates who is my idea of the winner. I’d hoped for longer odds though and shorter on the fav Finnegans Garden who looks about right at 3/1. Get shorter if you can. And I forego the back to save myself for some corkers the rest of the week. Two trades also going on Tuesday to bolster the plays on the day (see below).

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on FINNEGANS GARDEN (around 4.0)  

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill – Entered for Exeter (Dec 4)

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12) & King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law

Hitman – Entered for Exeter (Dec 4) & The Arkle (Mar 16)

First Flow – Entered for Tingle Creek,Sandown (Dec 5) & Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

Falberto – Entered for Ludlow (Dec 2)

Pepper Street – Entered for Leicester (Dec 3) & Sedgefield (Dec 4)

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

12-50 LINGFIELD – TIMETOROE @ 4/1 – 0.1pt BACK

3-02 SOUTHWELL – BOBBY BOW @ 7/2 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are on offer.

Neither are a great price on the tissue and you should hold out for better on the exchanges but both are trades as strong favs up against each. I’d probably only have each as place chances although TimetoRoe should get the ground required and that may happen for Bobby Bow too as there is more rain due in the area tonight.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

30th:   +0.637   (+4.468) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @11.0

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +51.1547points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.3708 points (+12.3708 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.7244 points (+40.7244 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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