BOZmail – 19th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 19th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

5-30 CHELMSFORD

No joy again Wednesday with the jockey jumping off Neitzsche at the first and Placedela Concorde jumping the first two like they were brick walls with flames dancing on top. Even with that race over feel early, Newtown Boy still tried to lose it but jockey Brian Hughes wouldn’t let him. One to chalk off the board for us and September continues an irksome month. You have to accept and get on with it.

Beating your breast is the alternative! I’ll stick to just getting on with it!

Thursday not great again although Friday and Saturday promise more. So keeping things tight again Thursday.

Conkering Hero is one of several with a  chance here and won well for us LTO with a 5lb penalty to carry here which only raises to a previous winning mark so we can be optimistic of another strong show out again so soon with the stable still in flying form.

Favourite Tavus is a progressive sort and that should sound alarm bells with it being September. Has improved going over further and has the excellent Jason Watson in the saddle but the big negative is back on the all weather where form has not been good to suggest that he’s a horse to prefer turf. Very short for its chance and LIM is all about that. System to be stuck to even though it’s September!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on TAVUS (around 2.5 : no greater than 2.7)

0.15pt BACK on CONKERING HERO

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 159/244 = 65.16% :   BACKS: 46/165 = 27.87%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

Will shout when the new staggered acca first leg emerges.               

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered at Hamilton (Sep 22)

Caius Marcius – Entered at Newton Abbot (Sep 20)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Bronze Cup(Sep 20) & Gold & Silver Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for  Newbury (Sep 21) & Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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