BOZmail – 19th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY OCTOBER 19th  2019 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

*******************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

**************************************************

THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1887 points

*************************************************

BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.436 points

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-10 MARKET RASEN

Happy days continued! Funny innit? Five days of miserable scrattiness followed by two magnificent days. I thought Luca Morgan did us proud and I was only just right about the potential form turnaround. They backed Ballyellis big time and he did run a cracker and better than his previous run in beating Skeaping. But The Boz got his sums right and despite Skeaping also getting backed, we beat the market. October at last gets under way!! Let’s hope the confidence continues into the weekend with a Quipco runner to go at and Sedgefield shortlist on Sunday. 

Meanwhile, two races I’m keen on Saturday and I’ve decided to play the more obvious LIM race as the next leg of the staggered acca (see below) and get creative with this one at Market Rasen.

Basically I can find a negative for all three at the top of the betting in this extremely tight six runner handicap hurdle. Umdeni is held by my fancy Honest Vic on running at Ascot in February and quite considerably held. Likely the Hobbs horse didn’t give true running that day but very much still a novice with that as his only handicap experience and thus not my idea of a 3/1 fav. Skelton’s Anytime will do is likewise a pretty green novice who made a terrible horlicks LTO and was far from convincing in winning the time before and doesn’t inspire going into his handicap debut. And Skandiburg is an Olly Murphy inmate and we saw from Good Boy McCoy at Fakenham yesterday that Olly’s horses are just out of kilter at the moment. Don’t fancy him on his handicap debut after long lay off either.

So the two dangers to Honest Vic are the other two 11/2 shots in a very tight betting heat namely Tight Call and Wicked Willy. The latter particularly with course and distance winning form and the same jock who we just managed to beat Friday but who nevertheless rode a belter and made us sweat!!

So my creative play is a never heard of triple lay in the race!! Real traders talk! The market may well be unrecognisable in the morning with all six runners coming back from lay off so simply get the best prices you can tonight (for half stake perhaps if you want to watch market movements) on Umndeni,Anytime will do and Skandiburg. They nearly cover each other anyways and if you are going to play proper trader/bookie and monitor the markets for the next 23 hours before the race, aim for between 2/1 and 3/1 on each. You might get it. If you do, it’ll be a near free bet anyways on Honest Vic who like Friday’s star comes from a stable boasting 100% running in form figure and the horse simply does have the best handicap form in this so has to be cracking value at 11/2 or anything near that you can get.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on UMNDENI (around 4.0 : no greater than 4.4)

0.1pt LAY on ANYTIME WILL DO (around 4.3 : no greater than 4.5)

0.1pt LAY on SKANDIBURG (around 5.5 : no greater than 5.8)

0.1pt BACK on HONEST VIC (around 6.5)

***************************************************

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 174/266 = 65.41% :   BACKS: 50/181 = 27.62%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

*****************************************************  

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

(THIRD LEG:)

3-00 FFOS LAS – 0.25pt LAY on ENNISTOWN @ around 2.5

We know Ennistown to be a speedy and consistent chaser from his summer campaign but I’m fairly confident he can be opposed here having to give 10lb to Candy Burg and King Alfonso on soft ground. The latter stable run at 100% form in running and the former is a course and distance winner and this course and distance is also a big worry for me for Ennistown as fav. Galloping track not speed track. 2mile 3and a half furlong when 2m5f and further is Ennistown’s ideal. Add to that the Honeyball stable bang out of form and Coleman not coming for the ride and I think the negatives for Ennistown stack up. One or other of the other two should beat him. More likely Candy Burg who holds King Alfonso on back form. That 100% however does belong to the King Alfonso stable hence my not playing back on this race. Except perhaps just a small back with any loose change you have out of your 0.41 points you have to play with (or whatever your personal two leg staggered acca return stands at). If I get 2.5 for my lay on Ennistown, I intend to place my loose change (0.035 points) in a back on Spock at the biggest price I can get. Those of you who remember the Jugoploist in March and were on the Lady Bowes place on Thursday will be nodding. It is one of those BOZmail rule number one things. The entire world will be watching Ascot so the price on 14 year old Spock who has recent record of plodding round in last will be ginormous. 50/1 as I write. Same as Lady Bowes night before. She made a BSP of 230.0. Could Spock beat that in a four runner race?? Lady Brooke hasn’t had a winner in ages and Spock hasn’t won for two years but that win was as a 12 year old and he has been kept going and ran his last decent race summer 2018. Front runner. They must think he can keep going to be keeping him in training. And if stuff goes on behind him as happened for the Jugopolist in March whilst everyone was watching Cheltenham…… well, like I say. Absolute BOZmail rule number one!! Good Luck! Get the best price you can. 

*******************************************************

WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus – Entered at Plumpton (Oct 21)

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

4-00 ASCOT – DEIRDRE @ 15/2 – 0.5pt BACK

The final to follow bet of 2019 on the turf flat as the Japanese superstar is our only runner on Qipco day (despite four and more entries over the past few months) thanks of course to the desperate ground at Ascot. How will she do? Ground is obviously a bit of an unknown but I’m hopeful. Her action for it is ok and she has won on firm ground.

Old wisdom always told me firm ground and heavy ground were quite similar. Never understood that but stats bear it out. And Deirdre likes the steady late stamina run.

Oisin is on board again. Fingers crossed for a splendid end to the 2019 to follow. I’m going a confident 0.5pt BACK after the past two days given that there is still 13 points profit in the trading pot. Probably won’t trade this but don’t let me dictate that to you. Trading is still my god and I may well change my mind come the race itself. I do fancy a punt as well though. Join me if you fancy it!

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *